Michigan’s primary election results showed several strengths and weaknesses for both former President Donald Trump and President Joe Biden that are worth exploring for the two probable nominees for the November general election.
First, Biden. Just over 756,000 Democrats voted on Tuesday, with around 13% of them voting “uncommitted.” Another 4% voted for spiritual author Marianne Williamson, who had suspended her campaign three weeks prior to the primary only to “un-suspend” it in a post on Twitter after besting Rep. Dean Phillips (D-MN), who received 2.6%.
Biden earned a healthy 81%.
Worth breaking down is where the “uncommitted” vote came from and if it has true enthusiasm heading into November. In short, will these people just not vote in November, or will they “come home” to their ordinary Democratic roots by voting for Biden?
In Dearborn, a city with considerable Arab American and Muslim communities, “uncommitted” won 57% support so far in the data posted on the city clerk’s website. Biden received 40%. Of the 11,340 Dearborn votes cast, 4,526 were for the president, and 6,432 were “uncommitted” in the unofficial results.
That protest vote was repeated in Hamtramck, according to unofficial results, and to lesser a extent in Dearborn Heights in the unofficial tally.
Two weeks ago, Rep. Rashida Tlaib (D-MI), a member of the far-left “Squad” in the House, told Democrats in Dearborn to vote against Biden in the primary.
“It is also important to create a voting bloc, something that is a bullhorn, to say, ‘Enough is enough,” she said, pointing to the Biden administration’s support for Israel in the war in Gaza.
“Listen to Michigan,” a campaign urging voters to get 10,000 uncommitted votes in the state, the same margin by which Trump won it in 2016, hit that goal times 10. Dave Weigel, a national political reporter for Semafor, posted on X as the results poured in that there was some wisdom in setting the bar low.
“Listen to Michigan setting 10k votes as a goal was very smart spin; uncommitted got 19k votes in 2020, when the Biden/Sanders race was still competitive,” Weigel wrote. “Not minimizing the campaign, but they set the bar low enough to vault over it by 8:30.”
It is at least interesting to note that in 2020 Biden beat Trump here by more than 150,000 votes — just over the number of protest voters who turned out against Biden within his own party.
Now, Trump. More than 1.1 million Republicans voted for the former president, who received a whopping 68.1% of the vote, while former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley earned 26.5%.
Republican strategist Jamie Roe, who has called Michigan home for most of his life, said it is important to look at who won where, the enthusiasm in those wins, and both men’s challenges for the next eight months as they try to win Michigan — along with Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, all part of the Great Lakes region that supported Trump in 2016 but then switched to Biden in 2020.
Roe said Trump’s strength is massive in blue-collar and rural counties across the state, “led by the largest blue-collar county, Macomb, which he won with 75.3% of the vote and 80,000 votes.”
Roe said it is important to note that the raw primary vote number is 20,000 more than Trump received from Macomb when he won the presidential primary there in 2016.
“Other blue-collar counties like Monroe, St. Clair, Lapeer, and Bay Counties all scored well over 70% for Trump, with rural counties showing up even better with large turnout for this type of election, with some margins reaching over 80% of the vote for Trump,” Roe explained.
Roe said Trump’s only weaknesses were in white-collar suburbs such as Oakland and Kent, where Haley got over 30% of the vote and held Trump in the mid to low 60s.
“These have always been battlegrounds for Trump, but he has been able to overcome by turning out voters who may not otherwise participate absent his presence on the ballot in blue-collar and rural counties,” Roe said.
He added that Biden’s biggest weaknesses are with Muslims and young people who showed up in big numbers to vote in the Democratic primary to vote “uncommitted” to protest Biden’s support for Israel.
“A reminder: The ‘uncommitted’ campaign only came together in the last 10 days of the campaign, missing the absentee voting period, but still produced more than 100,000 votes and garnered over 13% of the vote statewide,” Roe said.
Blue-collar voters are a problem for Biden despite the imagery of United Auto Workers President Sean Fain’s endorsement in this state last month. For example, consider the cities of Roseville and Warren, which have been deeply ingrained in the auto industry with auto plants and suppliers for generations. They have long been Democratic strongholds, but Trump got 2,827 votes, Biden received 2,250, and 351 voted uncommitted in Roseville.
In Warren, Trump received 8,020 votes, Biden received 7,134, and 968 voted uncommitted.
“This is a massive problem not only for Biden but also for the Democratic down-ballot races this fall,” Roe said.
Biden will continue to have problems with blue-collar voters because of the crisis at the border and unpopular mandates for electric vehicles that essentially favor China while taking away American union jobs.
Also worth noting in the primary, Trump received 757,104 votes, and Biden received just 618,474. Republicans see that Trump’s numbers alone, not even counting Haley’s, almost equaled the total of 763,457 voters who participated in the Democratic primary, despite massive efforts by Gov. Gretchen Whitmer (D-MI) and Vice President Kamala Harris to encourage Democratic turnout.
Democrats’ challenge in this election is different than the midterm elections of 2022 when abortion was the leading message that worked against the Republicans. In this year’s presidential race, they will need to address the border in a meaningful way as the problem has gone from a border-state matter to a national crisis. Biden also will have to effectively discuss crime and the economy instead of heavily relying on climate change.
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“You have to be able to connect with the blue-collar worker on the issues that impact their lives,” Roe said of both candidates. He added that while Trump may no longer win the high-income suburbs or highly educated women who were once a part of the Republican base but now squarely with Biden, “To win Michigan, you must have the blue-collar worker as a part of your coalition.”
On Thursday morning, a Bloomberg News/Morning Consult poll showed Trump besting Biden by 2 percentage points in Michigan, with the RealClearPolitics average showing Trump holding an overall 3.6-point advantage over Biden in this state.