The Michigan primary result featured a familiar refrain, with former President Donald Trump and President Joe Biden each winning their respective party primaries ahead of their expected general election rematch in November.
But as much as this primary delivered a widely expected result, the first major swing state to hold a primary in 2024 offers a preview of both candidates’ strengths and challenges for the general election.
To begin with, at the time of this writing, more than 100,000 votes were cast for “uncommitted” in the Democratic primary, even as Biden easily won the statewide contest. The main driver of this is widespread discontent with Biden among Arab and Muslim communities as well as young voters in the state over the president’s handling of the Israel-Hamas war.
With the general election looming in a little more than eight months, this lack of enthusiasm and motivation to protest should be a major alarm for the Biden campaign, which will need a strong showing from the Muslim community in Michigan to win the state.
But the problems don’t stay in Michigan. If a lack of enthusiasm among Democratic base voters leads to Biden falling short in the Great Lake State come November, it should be expected that neighboring states of Wisconsin and Pennsylvania would be affected as well. It could even mean Trump gives Biden a run for his money in the Democratic stronghold of Minnesota.
But on the other side, Donald Trump is proving that he is the singular leader of the Republican Party, and will wrap up the nomination in the next two weeks as he is well on his way to winning every state and territory.
While Trump is underperforming his polling against his last remaining rival in Nikki Haley, this is of little cause for concern given that the state has an open primary system that allows for Democrats and independents to vote in the Republican primary. And with Biden running as an incumbent, it is not unreasonable to conclude that Haley is benefitting from Democrats who think they have a duty to vote against Trump even in the GOP primary.
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Overall, the Michigan primary results offer a fascinating look into the electoral dynamics that will ultimately determine who occupies the White House come January 20, 2025. Given Trump won the state by a razor-thin margin in 2016, and Biden won the state by more than 150,000 votes in 2020, it promises to be a microcosm of the general feelings of the electorate.
And if Tuesday’s results are any indication, Biden has a real problem with his base, a problem that could ultimately help Trump flip the state back to the Republican column.