TRUMP MICHIGAN BLOWOUT POINTS TOWARD END OF GOP PRIMARY RACE. Former President Donald Trump absolutely trounced former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley by 42 points, 68% to 26%, in the Michigan primary. Why was Trump’s margin of victory bigger than previous races in Iowa, where he defeated Haley by 32 points; New Hampshire, where he won by 11 points; and South Carolina, where he won by 20 points? Because Michigan was the first time Democratic voters had something to do.
Think about it. The Democratic National Committee took away Iowa’s and New Hampshire’s place as the first two contests on the primary calendar. Both states went ahead and held early events anyway, a weird semi-caucus in Iowa and a write-in “primary” in New Hampshire, but there was no real election for Democrats to take part in. Then, in South Carolina, Democrats held their first primary, but it was not on the same day as the Republican primary, no big election day to bring out all voters, and the campaign of President Joe Biden successfully intimidated any party challengers from arising to capture the attention of Democratic voters. The result: A tiny number of South Carolina Democrats took part in the Democratic primary.
It should not have been a surprise that, given the circumstances in those three states, a number of Democrats and independents would exercise their right to vote in the Republican caucuses and primaries, which were attracting a lot more attention. Their intention was to cast a vote against Trump, not a vote for any Republican. And so they chose to vote for Haley, Trump’s most prominent and increasingly antagonistic opponent.
Many of Haley’s votes, wrote NBC’s Steve Kornacki, “are likely coming from people who already cast ballots against Trump in 2016 and 2020 — and who are committed to doing so again in 2024. To them, these primaries amount to a bonus opportunity to cast yet another vote against Trump.” That tendency was encouraged by the fact that there was nothing going on on the Democratic side.
That changed in Michigan. On Tuesday, both Republicans and Democrats held their primaries, and unlike previous contests, Democrats were engaged by an actual vote — whether to cast a ballot for “Uncommitted” as a way of protesting President Joe Biden’s position on the Israel-Hamas war. “Uncommitted” turned in a strong showing, with 13.3% of the vote, sending a signal to Biden that he has a problem with some Michigan Democrats.
With Democrats’ attention occupied, it was likely that fewer in the party would venture into the Republican primary. And lo and behold, Trump won by his biggest margin and gathered 68% of the vote. That is bigger than the 51% he won in Iowa, the 54% he won in New Hampshire, and the 60% he won in South Carolina.
Still, there is that 32% who did not vote for Trump. Who are they, and what will they do in the general election? (Just for comparison, 19% of Democratic primary voters did not vote for Biden, who faced no serious opposition beyond “Uncommitted.”) Several pundits say Trump’s failure to win almost all of the primary vote, even in the presence of an appealing, well-funded opponent like Haley, portends problems in the general election. In November, Trump will need a united GOP electorate, they say. Others, like Kornacki, suggest the primary results do not show a major problem for Trump because the voting population for a general election is very different from a primary.
In any event, the Michigan GOP results point toward the end of the Republican primary campaign. Haley has pledged to stay in the race only until Super Tuesday, which is next Tuesday. She hasn’t come close to winning any contest, and even if she were to win a primary next week, which she does not predict, she will still be a million miles behind Trump.
Back in 2016, Haley supported Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL) in the Republican primary race won by Trump. Rubio managed to make it to Super Tuesday, which that year was March 1, without winning anything. He then won a single state, Minnesota, on Super Tuesday. But he still faced growing calls to drop out. Rubio hung on, managing to win Puerto Rico and Washington, D.C., not big Republican strongholds, in hopes of prevailing in his home state of Florida on March 15. When Rubio lost Florida, two weeks after Super Tuesday, that was it. He withdrew on election night.
Haley has already lost her home state of South Carolina. The coming primary and caucus calendar does not look particularly hopeful for her. Trump appears to be gaining, not losing, strength. Now, Haley’s big challenge will be to manage the end of her race in a way that keeps her in a position of influence inside the Republican Party.
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