HANDICAPPING THE SOUTH CAROLINA RACE. COLUMBIA, South Carolina — The South Carolina primary is tomorrow, and according to the polls, former President Donald Trump leads former U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations Nikki Haley by anywhere from 22 to 36 percentage points, if you look at just the surveys that have been done in February. The race appears to be tightening a little, which is a normal thing to happen. Four polls finished before Feb. 11 all had Trump’s lead in the 30s, while the four most recent polls all have Trump’s lead in the 20s, from 22 to 29 points.
Looking at the RealClearPolitics average of polls, on Feb. 14, Trump’s lead was 33.5 points. Today, his lead is 25.3 points. That’s an 8-point change in a little more than a week. Again, it’s normal for a race to close a bit at the end. It happened in New Hampshire, where Trump won by less than the polls indicated. And of course a 25-point lead is still huge. But there does appear to be some movement.
One theory: The single most damaging thing Trump has done in the South Carolina part of the campaign is his attack on Haley’s marriage. It came during Trump’s Feb. 10 rally in Conway. Trump was criticizing Haley for breaking her promise not to run against him. Then he moved on to Haley’s husband, Michael. “She comes over to see me at Mar-a-Lago,” Trump said. “‘Sir, I will never run against you.’ She brought her husband. Where’s her husband? Oh, he’s away. What happened to her husband? What happened to her husband? Where is he? He’s gone.”
Haley’s husband is a major in the U.S. Army on a yearlong deployment in the Horn of Africa. Haley often talks about him in public. The fact of his deployment was well known when Trump mentioned him in Conway. So everybody knew where he was.
It’s unclear why Trump did it. He might have been trying to insinuate something about reports of trouble in Haley’s marriage in the past without actually saying it. But it did not go over well with many Republicans in South Carolina. In an impromptu conversation with five women in the Lowcountry recently, not at a Haley event, they all volunteered unhappiness with Trump’s comments about Haley’s husband. They did not like it. For her part, Haley has made Trump’s statement part of her stump speech, trying to blow it up into an attack on the entire U.S. military. That’s a stretch, but there’s no doubt the episode has hurt Trump — for one thing, notice that he hasn’t done it again.
The reaction to Trump’s remarks is something that can take a while to percolate into public opinion. Maybe that is part of what is happening with the South Carolina polls. In any event, Trump’s lead is still really big.
Now, the speculation centers on how well Haley can do. Remember she said that her goal was to do better in South Carolina than she did in New Hampshire, where she won 43% of the vote. Her best poll in South Carolina has her at 39%. Several others have her at 35% or below. So now, there is a number, not sure what it is, below which Haley will be seen to have failed and another number, again not sure, above which Haley will be seen as having done better than expected. Is it 40%? We’ll see.
Remember, Haley is what used to be called a favorite son in South Carolina. She is supposed to win here. In 2016, John Kasich stayed in the race far too long because he wanted to win his home state of Ohio. He succeeded, only to drop out later. In the same year, Marco Rubio was devastated when he failed to win his home state of Florida. He withdrew on election night.
This newsletter has discussed how long Haley might stay in the race. She is vowing to stay in, but only until Super Tuesday, which is just 10 days after the South Carolina primary. If she does not win here, the pressure will increase on her to win somewhere. Haley is deflecting all questions about where she might win, but the fact is, to stay in the race beyond a certain point, a candidate needs to win. In 2016, Trump opponents Ted Cruz, Rubio, and Kasich all won something, extending the race until May 3 of that year. For Haley to get to that point in 2024, she’ll need to win somewhere, and soon.
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