POLITE VS. PASSIONATE: THE HALEY-TRUMP INTENSITY GAP. SUMMERVILLE, South Carolina — Nikki Haley has two big problems as the South Carolina primary approaches. The first is that not enough Republicans support her. A new CBS News poll of South Carolina finds that former President Donald Trump leads Haley by 50 points, 74% to 24%, among self-identified Republicans in the state. A recent Washington Post-Monmouth University poll found Trump led Haley by 60 points, 77% to 17%, among respondents who called themselves strong Republicans and by 26 points, 60% to 34%, among those who called themselves soft Republicans or just leaned toward being a Republican. Even though Democrats and independents can vote in the Republican primary, the fact is, the winner will overwhelmingly need Republican votes, and Haley doesn’t appear to have nearly enough GOP support to win.
Haley’s other big problem is that even among those Republicans who support her, that support is less intense than support for Trump. When the Washington Post-Monmouth pollsters asked whether respondents would feel “enthusiastic,” “satisfied,” “dissatisfied,” or “upset” if Trump became the Republican nominee, 65% of Trump supporters said they would be enthusiastic, and 33% said they would be satisfied. When Haley supporters were asked how they would feel if she became the GOP nominee, 51% said they would be enthusiastic, while 44% said they would be satisfied. Among Trump supporters, there is an added margin of intensity that Haley just doesn’t have.
That’s one reason to go to a Trump rally — to see and feel the enthusiasm of the crowd. And when Trump came to the HTC Center at Coastal Carolina University in Conway, South Carolina, on Saturday, the enthusiasm was…intense. First, it was a big crowd, probably around 3,000-3,500 packed into the building and a large group outside of those who could not get in. Many came very, very early for the 2 p.m. rally, and since Trump, as a former president, has Secret Service protection, the security screening process took a long time. Trump’s supporters are patient people. Many waited for hours to see him.
When the former president walked in the room, the reaction was loud, tumultuous, happy, nearly over the top. The enthusiasm needle flipped all the way to the high side. There was clearly a deep emotional connection between the South Carolinians in the HTC Center and the man they voted for in 2016 and 2020 and are now looking forward to voting for in 2024. It’s a bond that Haley just does not have with the same number of South Carolina GOP voters, even though she was elected governor of the state twice, in 2010 and in 2014. Trump is simply operating on another level in Haley’s home state, something that is clear from the polls and from one’s own eyes.
It is worthwhile to talk about Haley with Trump supporters at a Trump rally. Here’s the story: Most South Carolinians, for all the state’s cutthroat politics, are reluctant to trash another South Carolinian publicly, especially in a conversation with an outsider. About a year ago, at a Trump event in Columbia before either Haley or Sen. Tim Scott (R-SC) had announced their candidacies, Trump supporters consistently expressed positive feelings toward both. One Trump fan said to me, “I like Nikki Haley, and I love Tim Scott,” which was her way of saying she liked Scott more than Haley but that she was not going to say anything negative about either one, even though she was a strong Trump supporter.
Now, after all that has happened, with Haley launching ever-sharper attacks on Trump, the Trump supporters in Conway that I talked to had good things to say about Haley and her time in the governor’s office. Several people I spoke to said some variation of this: She did a good job and I like her, but it’s just not her time.
It’s just not her time. It’s not Hailey’s time, for those Trump supporters, because it is Trump’s time. Most believed that since the polls are so lopsided and Haley is so far behind, she must be staying in the race now to position herself for 2028. Some also said that about Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL), who dropped out of the race before the New Hampshire primary. The Trump supporters I talked to in Conway could easily see themselves supporting Haley or DeSantis in 2028 — just not now.
While Trump was visiting Conway — he plans to be back in South Carolina for another rally Wednesday night in North Charleston — Haley was on a bus tour around the state. On Tuesday, she came to Summerville, a charming old town that has become a suburb of Charleston. A few hundred supporters turned out. It wasn’t intended to be as big an event as Trump’s. Haley did four such events on Tuesday alone. She has had some bigger rallies — she drew over 2,000 people in Beaufort, according to her campaign — but she does a bunch of smaller stops, while Trump does a few big ones.
Like many at the Trump rally, the people in Summerville said Haley did a good job as governor. They cited her work as U.S. ambassador to the United Nations. They felt she would enact conservative policies in the White House. As far as Trump was concerned, some really, really did not like the former president. I heard more negative things about Trump at the Haley rally than I heard negative things about Haley at the Trump rally. But many of the Haley supporters said they voted for Trump twice, as did Haley herself, but just believe he is no longer the best candidate for the job.
The Haley crowd was the living embodiment of the intensity of results in the polls. Where Trump’s numbers are sky-high, Haley’s are OK. Similar to the crowds she drew in Iowa and New Hampshire, Haley’s reception in South Carolina is mildly enthusiastic, positive, and polite. The people in the crowds are polite, which is a good thing. The staff is polite, which is a good thing. And the applause is polite, which is not as good a thing. A look at Haley’s reception versus Trump’s reception is a study in polite versus passionate.
The intensity gap playing out in South Carolina is something pollsters also saw in Iowa and in New Hampshire, where Haley lost to Trump by double digits. Now, the polls in Haley’s home state again show her trailing Trump by double digits — behind 65% to 30% overall in the CBS poll, 65% to 29% in a new Winthrop University poll, and 58% to 32% in the Washington Post-Monmouth poll.
In New Hampshire, it turned out that some of the polls overstated Trump’s lead, and the final result, an 11-point Trump victory, was a little closer than some polls projected. Maybe that is happening here. Still, it’s a big lead.
The fact is, Trump has an effect on his supporters that Haley cannot match. One last poll number. The CBS pollsters asked likely primary voters whether a number of attributes, such as being likable or conservative or prepared or tough or a strong leader, applied to Haley and Trump. Haley’s best score came on her likability; 52% of those surveyed said she was likable. Just 39% called her a strong leader.
Trump’s best score came on his toughness; 78% said he was tough. And 75%, his next-highest score, said he was a strong leader. So in the strong leader category, Trump led Haley 75% to 39%. That’s not far from the gap we have seen in some polls overall. Can Haley overcome it in the 10 days left before the South Carolina primary? Most political professionals would say it’s silly even to ask that question. A more realistic question would be what Haley does next.
For a deeper dive into many of the topics covered in the Daily Memo, please listen to my podcast, The Byron York Show — available on Radio America and the Ricochet Audio Network and everywhere else podcasts can be found.