The tensions spreading across the continent of Asia have accelerated China’s aggression. The smaller nations surrounding the South China Sea need to band together to resist it.
The hotbed of most concern is Taiwan. The small island nation has been slated for conquest since the People’s Republic of China was founded in 1949. It produces over 50% of the world’s semiconductors, so losing it to China would put the free world in serious danger.
Losing Taiwan would pose a direct threat to the sovereignty of every other East and Southeast Asian nation. It would also put China right in the natural resource-rich South China Sea and next to the lucrative trade route that passes through the Strait of Malacca.
Due to historically tense relations between the Asian states, they have really only remained free from China’s grip thanks to the overwhelming support of the United States. According to the findings of the Lowy Institute Asia Power Index, America has a comprehensive power score of 80.7 while China has 72.5.
However, China has become emboldened by the incompetency that the Biden administration has displayed on the world stage. The Taiwanese foreign minister Joseph Wu warned last year that he suspects that China is preparing for a 2027 invasion of Taiwan. Asian countries need to prepare in case America is spread too thin and preoccupied by wars elsewhere.
Japan — comprehensive power score: 37.2
Of the Asian powers involved, China sees Japan as its greatest threat to regional hegemony. Historically, Japan and China have viewed themselves as the ideal Asian societies. They have rotated between second and third place in economic rankings, and their militaries are both in the top 10. Japan infuriated China when its minister of defense, Yasuhide Nakayama, said Taiwan is the “red line of the 21st century” and that Japan must “protect Taiwan as a democratic country.”
Japan has positioned itself as the anti-Chinese leader of the regional Asian countries. In December 2023, the Japanese prime minister celebrated 50 years of relations with the 10-nation Association of Southeast Asian Nations, where he and those nations’ leaders agreed to prioritize defense and security cooperation to check Chinese aggression.
South Korea — comprehensive power score: 29.5
South Korea faces two direct threats to its sovereignty: North Korea and China. Seoul generally gets less ire from Beijing than its neighbors, but tensions remain strong because of its military alliance with Pyongyang and its attempts at driving a wedge between South Korea and the U.S.
Despite having spent most of its history as either a vassal kingdom of China or a colony of Japan, Seoul’s opposition to communist authoritarianism and its strong friendship with Washington aligns it with Japanese interests. The three have agreed to trilateral military cooperation as of this year. This was good timing, as North Korean leader Kim Jong Un announced last month that his new goal is to annex South Korea forcefully.
Philippines — comprehensive power score: 12.8
The Philippines largely has put its quarrels with Japan from World War II aside due to their shared interest in resisting Chinese hegemony and their top mutual ally, the U.S. Their bilateral cooperation has consistently strengthened as China’s aggression has increased, and in January, Manila and Tokyo signed a pact to grant military access to both their island nations.
China sees the Philippines as a growing thorn in its side. Manila has disrupted Beijing’s attempts to strengthen ties with communist Vietnam. The two ASEAN members met Tuesday to defend their maritime borders against China, a deal that could be used to cut it off from the Strait of Malacca. The following day, Beijing sent 200 vessels over Manila’s border to intimidate and threaten to isolate it.
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China plans on taking advantage of America’s wavering decadence and its multi-pronged focus on several fronts in Asia’s western regions, and it sees East and Southeast Asia as ripe for the taking.
Amid growing Chinese imperialist aggression, the Asian nations must band together and form a unified coalition in case America is not prepared for a war.
Parker Miller is a 2024 Washington Examiner Winter Fellow.