Sensing an opportunity to weaken a growing political thorn in its side, China is escalating its pressure on Philippine President Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos.
Beijing is infuriated by Marcos’s robust defense of his national sovereignty, especially in the South China Sea. Alongside other nations in the region, such as Vietnam, the Philippines is facing a nakedly imperialist effort by China to seize the near entirety of the South China Sea. While devoid of historical or legal foundation, Beijing’s claims are supported by vast fleets of coast guard and militia vessels. These fleets harass any foreign ships that attempt to operate in waters that China claims, including with the use of high-powered water cannons, acoustic devices, lasers, and ramming maneuvers. Marcos has resisted China’s claims over waters within the Philippines’s exclusive economic zone. This has greatly upset Beijing, bringing unwanted international scrutiny and helping to align South China Sea nations in a stronger challenge against it.
Now, however, seeing that the United States is distracted by the crisis in the Middle East, and with Marcos under pressure over domestic political and economic reforms, Beijing senses it has a new opportunity to corral him into submission. Two hundred Chinese militia vessels have gathered close to the Second Thomas Shoal, within the Philippines’s exclusive economic zone. This has Manila concerned that the Chinese may attempt to completely isolate or even remove a small detachment of Philippine Marines stationed on the BRP Sierra Madre, a deliberately grounded vessel within the Shoal.
Beijing has also deployed Marcos’s predecessor, Rodrigo Duterte, to rally populist rhetoric against the incumbent president. Duterte has spent the past week telling everyone that Marcos is a longtime illegal drug user. He also claimed that the Philippines’s otherwise strong economic growth is not sufficiently benefitting its poorest citizens. The former president offers an easy tool for Beijing. After all, if Marcos’s presidency is a thorn in Beijing’s side, Duterte was its submissive political prostitute. In return for its patronage, Duterte essentially ceded foreign policy control to Beijing. He turned the Philippine Navy into a beach patrol and greatly damaged ties with Manila’s long-standing ally, the U.S.
Marcos isn’t backing down. He just reached a coast guard cooperation agreement with Vietnam — something Beijing derided as an effort to form a small clique. He is pushing for greater international naval activity alongside the Philippines, especially concerning Beijing in terms of prospective European naval cooperation with Manila — China’s economic and trade needs mean that it cannot afford to alienate the EU. And retaining some support from his vice president and Duterte scion, Sara Duterte, the president says he’ll press on with his reform program. Marcos also retaliated against Duterte’s drug insults by accusing his predecessor of having a fentanyl addiction. Duterte previously admitted he takes prescription painkillers, and his erratic behavior suggests Marcos might be speaking the truth.
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Regardless, this situation shows Beijing’s appetite for control is unabated. It believes that the Philippines is destined to become another Pakistan — which is to say, a new Chinese colony. Beijing is willing to put major efforts toward that pursuit.
As a treaty defense ally of Manila, Washington should warn Beijing again that any attack on the Philippines would bring American military intervention.