The crisis in the Middle East continues as Iran and its proxies disrupt regional security and international trade. The war in Ukraine rumbles on as Russian President Vladimir Putin retains his messianic sense of imperial ambition. China is escalating its military threats to a U.S. treaty defense ally, the Philippines. But it’s clear that North Korean leader Kim Jong Un doesn’t want to be left off the list of American security challenges.
North Korea retains nuclear weapons and is slowly but steadily improving its means of reliably delivering those weapons onto long-range targets. The country claimed the successful test of a solid-fuel ballistic missile this week. These missiles allow pre-fueling and staging and so reduce the warning time and potential first-strike options available to a prospective adversary such as the U.S. At the same time, Kim and his inner circle are adopting noticeably more hostile policy statements toward South Korea. This week, Kim openly abandoned his regime’s policy focus on reunification with South Korea in favor of forcible annexation. North Korea also has cut off communications with its southern neighbor and recently conducted live-fire exercises along a disputed border area. The vast size of the North Korean army, its nuclear weapons, and Kim’s unpredictability pose a significant threat. While the U.S. and South Korea would win any war with North Korea, the costs might be terrible. Kim knows that Washington and Seoul know this, seeking to exploit this fear for his own agenda.
Further complicating things from a U.S. perspective is the increased cooperation between Russia and North Korea. In return for its provision of munitions and weapons to Russia for use in its war against Ukraine, Moscow is assisting Pyongyang’s development of ballistic missile technology. Russia’s expertise is priceless to Kim and will catalyze his growing nuclear weapons threat to Japan, and the U.S. Strategic coordination between the two countries is growing via more high-level ministerial trips between them. These in-person meetings allow for coordination on ballistic missile developments, the war in Ukraine, and other anti-U.S. agendas in a manner that reduces the ability of U.S. intelligence community to monitor what is being discussed or agreed.
What happens next?
China, North Korea’s irreplaceable trade benefactor, has long viewed Pyongyang as a key means of variously exerting and reducing pressure on the U.S. Russia appears to view North Korea in the same manner. Again, Russia’s ballistic missile insights will make Kim inclined to accept Moscow’s wishes in other areas. North Korea’s particular utility here is its ability to tie down U.S. military resources and political attention. Moscow and Beijing might hope, for example, to utilize their influence on Pyongyang to extract U.S. concessions on matters related to Taiwan and the war in Ukraine.
Fortunately, there are some positive developments. South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol has adopted a more robust stance against North Korean threats than his predecessors. Yoon has warned of unprecedented consequences should Kim conduct a nuclear test or attack of any kind on the South. The president also has bolstered his cooperation with Japan, helping the bilateral relationship between these two major American allies move past prior difficulties and align against common threats.
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Still, any war on the Korean peninsula would tie down highly finite U.S. military resources. While the Army would bear the brunt of the U.S. commitment to any war effort, the Air Force would also have to deploy bomber and fighter aircraft that would otherwise be needed in any conflict against China or Russia. This speaks to the centerpiece of U.S. concern: that Kim would open a new war front before or during a U.S. war with China over Taiwan or in the South China Sea, or were Putin to expand his war in Ukraine against a NATO member state.
Put simply, the North Korean dictator has the means and apparent appetite to be an increasing wild card threat in 2024.