SIOUX CITY, IOWA — Former President Donald Trump was supposed to fly into this city in northwestern Iowa to give a rally at the charming Orpheum Theater downtown on Saturday night, but the sub-zero temperatures, high wind, and a few inches of snow on the ground convinced him to cancel.
Because I had spoken to many caucus-goers undecided between Trump and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, I thought DeSantis’s Sunday night meet-and-greet at Beer Can Alley on 4th Street would be a great opportunity for him to win over some Trump leaners. But on Saturday night, DeSantis canceled his Sioux City event for Sunday.
While some Iowans try to tell me this is normal — “This happens every winter,” the bartender at Salty Dog in Council Bluffs told me — this isn’t normal. Most of the folks here admit it. Iowans are hunkered down.
Only about 50 worshippers showed up for the 10 a.m. Sunday Mass at the cathedral in Sioux City, a mass usually hosting more than 200 people. “I think a lot of people can’t get out,” one church lady told me. “I had to get a ride because the snowplows trapped my car.”
Miles Inn, a beloved dive bar on the eastern part of town, was nearly empty during the Chiefs game Saturday night. Two women sat at the bar while a table of seven locals invited me to join them. We were the only ones there.
“It’s never like this,” a young woman named Brooke told me. “Usually, you need to fight your way to the bar,” said Brooke’s friend, a guy who kept calling me “Erik.”
When the bartenders at Miles turned off the jukebox to try and get the game audio, the silence was eerie. That same silence pervades the streets and sidewalks in Council Bluffs and Sioux City at all times of day.
The sledding hills are empty. So are the roads. Everyone is hunkered down.
This obviously will have an impact on Monday night at the Iowa Caucuses. This year’s caucuses will certainly have the lowest turnout of any Republican caucuses, barring those years, like 2020 and 2004, when there was a Republican incumbent in the White House.
The weather creates two problems: First, it will keep many would-be caucus-goers at home; secondly, it has kept the candidates from making the visits that generate enthusiasm for caucusing. Trump, DeSantis, Nikki Haley, and Vivek Ramaswamy have all canceled multiple events this week.
But the weather isn’t the only thing driving down turnout. Trump’s massive lead is also discouraging people from tuning in or turning out.
“You know what’s going to happen, right?” asks the “Erik” guy at Miles. “It’s not a mystery.”
Sure enough, Trump has the largest lead of any front-runner in the history of the Des Moines Register’s pre-caucus poll.
This is a massive departure from past years. In 2016, the last year when there was no Republican incumbent, the caucus outcome was far from given — Trump and Ted Cruz were tied in the polls. In 2012, Rick Santorum and Mitt Romney basically tied in the end after a late Santorum surge. In 2008, Mike Huckabee pulled off an upset.
A pre-ordained caucus is a new thing to most Iowans.
So, how might the low-turnout affect the results? Who will benefit the most, and who will suffer the most?
It’s complicated.
The cancellation of candidate events redounds to Trump’s benefit. Rallies and meet-and-greets are how candidates win over voters. Fewer late events mean less competition for votes. Less competition is a good thing for the front-runner. Again, Huckabee, Santorum, and Cruz all made late surges. It’s hard to make a surge when you’re staying home.
The lower turnout probably helps DeSantis the most. Haley’s base includes a lot of independents and Democrats, who are probably among the least enthusiastic potential caucusers. DeSantis, according to many reports, has a strong ground game. Trump has tons of loyal followers, but also many people are simply defaulting to the former president, and this latter group will probably turn out less.
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But it would be shocking if DeSantis somehow made up his 32-point deficit or even came close.
And barring any such shock, this will go down as the deadest Iowa caucuses ever.