As Nikki Haley began to surge in the polls over the course of last autumn, it became abundantly clear that for the presidential hopes of Ron DeSantis, the Iowa caucuses were an existential exercise. Now, as the final J. Ann Selzer poll of the Hawkeye State shows that the Florida governor has dropped to third place behind the former Ambassador to the United Nations, it’s more obvious than ever that DeSantis must win the first primary contest outright in order for there to remain a credible case for his candidacy.
First, imagine the best-case scenario for DeSantis.
The coldest caucus weather in decades could disproportionately depress the turnout of Haley’s supporters, who, specifically in Iowa, report less enthusiasm for their candidate and are more likely to identify as independent or Democratic. DeSantis’ ground game in the state, a machine touted by his supporters as the strongest and most meticulous in caucus history, could help DeSantis overperform the polls; and overconfidence in former President Donald Trump‘s continually dominant polling could lead to complacency and his underperformance in the polls. And an outright first-place victory from DeSantis would indeed discredit the polls that have him languishing in fourth place in New Hampshire and third place in South Carolina.
Such a development would also put real pressure on Haley to drop out if she followed a third-place finish in Iowa with a lackluster showing in the Granite State.
But is that likely? After consolidating the endorsements of both Gov. Kim Reynolds and historic Iowa kingmaker Bob Vander Plaats and cleaving tightly to the culture wars tailor-made for the state, DeSantis’ support has fallen consistently across Iowa’s polls. Since obsessing over Haley, her support has only increased, and DeSantis’ refusal to target the guy actually winning the polling has left Trump with a 32-point margin over the governor.
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Mind you, the final Selzer poll before the Iowa caucuses has never been off by more than 7.3%.
DeSantis’s campaign has already telegraphed its intention to mostly skip New Hampshire after the caucuses and instead head directly to South Carolina. If he does win Iowa on Monday, this could continue a race-breaking reset with real hopes for a DeSantis nomination. If he does not, he would be better off bowing out gracefully than spending his final reserves of donor cash on friendly fire at a second-place candidate.