As insurgency ravaged Iraq, Iraqi Kurdistan sought to depict itself as an island of stability, security, and even affluence. It pitched itself as a democratic oasis and a haven of religious freedom. Whether out of naivete or greed, Western governments embraced and amplified the fiction.
Reality transcends. Not only do the two dominant political families — the Barzanis and Talabanis —despise and undermine each other, but within each family cousins backstab cousins. Among the Barzanis, for example, Prime Minister Masrour Barzani and his brother and enforcer Waysi Barzani marginalize their cousin Nechirvan, the regional president. The region boasts five-star hotels and third-world hospitals. Salaries go unpaid while wealthy elites drive Lamborghinis and toast diplomats with bottles of whiskey worth tens of thousands of dollars. Meanwhile, many risking better lives in Europe but freezing in Belarussian forests or drowning in the Mediterranean are not Syrians fleeing war but Kurds fleeing corruption.
Meanwhile, the region’s religious minorities whisper complaints of repression: They are museum exhibits, trotted out for foreign dignitaries and allowed to worship so long as they give fealty to the strongman. The Barzanis may cleanse their image with a papal photo-op, but once the cameras move on they continue to seize Christian property and imprison those who complain.
The issue is not only human rights and dignity but also security. Barzani collaborated with the Islamic State when he believed he could use them against rivals. Frustration with local corruption has created fertile ground for Islamism. The regime also incites conflict to distract from their own failings. Today, Washington realizes its decadeslong bet on Kurdish strongmen was a mistake.
History now repeats with Azerbaijan. On its face, the Aliyev family dominates the country. Together Ilham Aliyev and his father Heydar, a former KGB and Soviet Politburo official, have dominated the country for more than a half-century. They project an image of prosperity even as their country falls behind neighbors who lack its gas wealth. Aliyev rewards foreign officials with sweetheart deals and “caviar diplomacy.” Azerbaijani diplomats brag about religious freedom, notwithstanding the fact that two-thirds of the Jewish community has fled and that the U.S. Commission on International Religious Freedom has recommended Azerbaijan to be on the State Department’s Special Watch List due to its ethnic cleansing of Armenian Christians in Nagorno-Karabakh.
Still, despite its rhetoric of democracy, the State Department often favors dictatorships since it is easier to reach agreements with a one-stop shop than with the ever-shifting dynamics in a democracy. Aliyev plays into this in his public speeches, warning his audience of chaos that ensued during a brief interregnum upon independence when Azerbaijan experimented with democracy.
Behind the scenes, though, the Aliyev facade is crumbling. Mehriban Aliyeva, Ilham Aliyev’s wife and current vice president, hails from the Pashayev clan, the country’s most powerful family. Today, they control Azerbaijan’s banking, aviation, and university sectors and slowly expand their reach as they purge minor Aliyevs from the state bureaucracy. Ilham and Mehriban maintain a facade of marriage, but seldom spend time together. They have three children and Ilham has an additional illegitimate daughter. As Aliyev ages, succession is unclear.
Many assume Mehriban will take control, but patriarchal Azerbaijan may not be ready for a female president in more than name. There is no obvious candidate among the children: Each is problematic for different reasons involving drugs, domestic violence, or, in Ilham’s son Heydar’s case, apparent autism. Azerbaijani elites whisper that Ilham Aliyev himself has #MeToo problems dating to his teenage years, but erode support among an elite family whose minor daughter was a victim.
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As with Iraqi Kurdistan, foreign influences also sow internal discord. The Russian General Staff is the predominant influence among the Azerbaijani army, while Turkey dominates Azerbaijan’s Special Forces. Aliyev is no longer the paramount influence for either.
Western countries may want to gamble on Aliyev to counter Iran or ensure energy, but, as with Iraqi Kurdistan before, internal discord undermines the foundation of stability. The questions today are whether American strategists will make the same mistake twice, and whether Washington can afford another bad bet.
Michael Rubin is a contributor to the Washington Examiner’s Beltway Confidential. He is director of policy analysis at the Middle East Forum and senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute.