Managing U.S.-China relations is a delicate act. One wrong move can blow the entire ship off course. I’ve repeatedly described the bilateral relationship as an apt example of the one-step-forward, two-steps-back phenomenon. Whether it’s a foolish, ego-driven trip to Taiwan by a House speaker or a surveillance balloon hovering over America, officials seeking improved relations are often at the mercy of events. Hawkish elements will take any slip-up as an opportunity to rail against collaboration, regardless of the issue at stake.
Still, U.S. and Chinese defense officials have finally resurrected talks for the first time since then-Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s trip to Taiwan in August 2022. We have limited information about how these talks progressed. But the mere fact that they occurred after such a long hiatus is itself a small dollop of hope. It suggests that the two sides seek a return to a business-as-usual mentality.
Based strictly on the official readouts of the conversation, U.S. and Chinese representatives stuck with the script and rehashed the age-old talking points. The United States, the Defense Department wrote, “discussed the importance of operational safety across the Indo-Pacific region; reaffirmed that the United States will continue to fly, sail, and operate safely and responsibly wherever international law allows; and underscored that the U.S. commitment to our allies in the Indo-Pacific and globally remains ironclad.” Beijing reiterated that Taiwan was the reddest of red lines, that the U.S. military should quit instigating the region with its military exercises, “stop arming Taiwan, and not support Taiwan independence.”
There were no breakthroughs. But anybody who was anticipating a breakthrough is suffering from a major case of unwarranted optimism. There are simply too many disputed issues between the U.S. and China. Some of them, particularly as it relates to Taiwan and the balance of power in Asia, are systemic and won’t be resolved anytime soon — if at all.
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The U.S. continues to view the People’s Liberation Army as a destabilizing force. The U.S. sees the PLA threatening American friends, allies, and partners with belligerent rhetoric and expansive maritime claims. According to the Pentagon, the U.S. documented 180 PLA intercepts of U.S. aircraft in the region between fall 2021 and fall 2023. Chinese coast guard vessels have increasingly harassed Philippine ships over the last several months, ramming some of the boats and using water cannons on others. The Biden administration has reiterated time and time again that China needs to respect the Philippines’ exclusive economic zone (which Beijing claims as its own). The U.S. has consistently stated that Washington’s mutual defense agreement with Manilla “extends” to attacks on Philippine assets anywhere in the South China Sea. Whether the U.S. would actually come to the defense of the Philippines, or, more importantly, whether the U.S. should go to war with China on behalf of a bunch of rocks and reefs, is fortunately still a theoretical question.
Point being: Just because U.S. and Chinese military officials are sitting across the table from each other again doesn’t mean the relationship itself will significantly improve. While we hope this occurs, the reality is more muddled and pessimistic. The U.S. still views China as its greatest competitor. The feeling is mutual on the Chinese side. Yet the two powers still have a collective responsibility to keep the channels of communication open, particularly in the military realm. This week’s relatively bureaucratic exercise is step one.
Daniel DePetris (@DanDePetris) is a contributor to the Washington Examiner’s Beltway Confidential blog. His opinions are his own.