With the opening of the Iowa caucuses next week, the first presidential election of my life as a father begins in earnest — our first son was born in June. It’s remarkable how parenthood concentrates the mind in matters both private and public. What seemed abstract before seems terrifyingly distinct with a baby in one’s lap.
More than ever before, it seems vital that education be reimagined and reconstituted, not merely tinkered with around the margins; that our government remains solvent and our economy robust; that border security can reliably deny fentanyl smugglers and foreign terrorists entry into our communities; that the mental health epidemic in our youth is addressed seriously, particularly in relation to addictive and mind-warping technology; and that government is adequately prepared for the next major health crisis and not satisfied with simply tossing the keys to the likes of Dr. Anthony Fauci when things get sticky.
It is no small miracle that despite years of shoddy messaging, infighting, and lousy candidates, the Republican Party position is now favored by the public on every major national matter short of abortion — and by no small margin. A recent Gallup poll shows that Republicans have a 14-point advantage over Democrats on economic matters and a staggering 22-point advantage on matters of national security. Self-identified independent voters favor Republicans on these topics at an even greater clip. For the first time in a generation, the Republican Party is in a prime position to dominate at the polls and enact conservative solutions for the major dilemmas of our day.
To make an already rosy picture brighter, the voting public has soured on the incumbent Democrat — irrevocably. President Joe Biden’s approval rating now hovers at 40%, according to the RealClearPolitics average. It hasn’t been above 45% since January of 2021. To boot, 70% of Americans do not think Biden should seek reelection. Most of them cite his age as the reason, which is a problem that can’t be fixed. And yet, Biden insists on battling for “the soul of the nation” as a pretense for clinging to power. His lack of capacity for the job is only equaled by his contempt for the intelligence of the public.
To be utterly certain, Biden’s only hope of victory lies in the possibility that Republican voters nominate someone who will be less appealing than he is by November. With former President Donald Trump dominating the polls in Republican primaries, this scenario is depressingly realistic.
Despite being the slight favorite in a hypothetical rematch against Biden as of today, the prospect that Trump will maintain his lead until Election Day is dubious at best. Indeed, Trump is no longer the quick-witted establishment slayer of debate stages past. His lament that President Abraham Lincoln failed to “negotiate” the end of the Civil War in favor of crushing the Confederates at a MAGA rally last week should be enough to crater his candidacy. At the very least, the “gaffe” was worse than former U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations Nikki Haley’s recent comments on the causes of the Civil War by an order of magnitude.
But if the polls are to be believed, the Republican electorate is numb to the inanity and far more invested in winning the movie version of reality, the one in which their hero prevails over forces of darkness in the “final battle,” than in improving actual reality, the one in which Mexico didn’t pay for the wall that was never built and government shutdowns destroyed the economy and schools during COVID-19 under his watch.
With 11 months in front of the camera, does anyone really believe that an older, slower, and even less coherent Trump will come out smelling like roses? On the contrary, it is a virtual certainty that voters will remember what they rejected in 2020 with increased exposure, especially when a large block of his media appearances will occur outside a courtroom.
The only still-beating sign that Trump retains his political savvy is that he declines to participate in the primary debates. He knows his day has passed. He just hopes voters don’t realize it, too.
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As the Trump circus recommences, the startlingly real problems our nation faces will take a backseat. Democrats and their failed policies will be given a lifeline. The dying legacy news media will be revived with replenished ratings.
It doesn’t have to be this way. Republican voters hold all of the cards. The time to smarten up is now — if only for the sake of the next generation.
Peter Laffin is a contributor at the Washington Examiner. His work has also appeared in RealClearPolitics, the Catholic Thing, and the National Catholic Register.