Former Republican New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie entered the 2024 presidential primary with exactly one job: making former President Donald Trump look bad. If he really wants to take down Trump, he should now exit the race.
Christie’s main political strength was always yelling at people. He was a popular two-term Republican governor in Democrat-dominated New Jersey because of his ability to be smarter, louder, and more obnoxious than the people he was up against. The closest thing he had to an accomplishment in his 2016 presidential race was making Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL) look bad in a debate, thus helping Trump.
That’s why some anti-Trump Republicans were cheered by Christie’s run. “Christie is the best-positioned person to humiliate Trump,” I wrote in July. “If he succeeds at making Trump look bad, Christie will open the door for a Republican nominee who is more conservative, more electable, and more decent than Trump.”
Trump, fearing how bad he might come across when challenged, never appeared onstage with Christie or his other opponents. There is no chance Trump will appear on a debate stage during the primary, and so now, Christie cannot harm Trump — he can only help him. And Christie is helping him.
The latest poll out of New Hampshire shows Trump in first place with 39%, former U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations Nikki Haley in second place with 32%, and Christie in third place with 12%.
If this poll accurately reflects the New Hampshire electorate, then it makes a strong case for Christie to drop out before the primary in two weeks because Christie dropping out could move Haley into first place.
We don’t know what the Christie supporters would do if he dropped out. Surely, some would still vote for him — he’s already on the ballot — and others would stay home. A few would go to Trump. Others would go to DeSantis or minor candidates. But there’s good reason to believe a majority would go to Haley.
Christie is a social liberal who appeals to the upper-middle-class white independent and Republican, just like Haley.
Look at the crosstabs on this poll. Haley is the second choice of 14% of voters in the state, and many of those are likely Christie supporters now.
Christie gets 33% of independents and Democrats in this poll, while Haley gets 47%. Ideologically, Christie’s supporters are overwhelmingly liberals or moderates, and Haley is winning both of those groups in New Hampshire.
In a national poll, Haley was the second choice for 40% of Christie voters, while Trump was the second pick for only 1% of Christie voters.
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It’s entirely plausible that Christie dropping out at 12% would give 8 points to Haley and less than 1 point to Trump, putting Haley in the lead in New Hampshire.
If Trump wins Iowa and Haley wins New Hampshire, the GOP nomination could be an actual contest.