Hopefully Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) enjoyed his Christmas vacation because his return to work this week promises to be a painful slog reminiscent of the ordeal faced by his predecessor, Kevin McCarthy.
On Sunday, Johnson announced he had reached a deal with Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) on top-line spending numbers to fund the government for the remainder of fiscal 2024. The agreement, struck a week before a Jan. 15 deadline for a government shutdown, sets defense spending at $886 billion and nondefense spending at $773 billion.
But if the immediate reaction from some Republican lawmakers to Johnson’s announcement is any indication, the rookie speaker is going to see firsthand why the position he occupies is the most undesirable.
Rep. Bob Good (R-VA), the chairman of the House Freedom Caucus, called the deal “another loss for America.” Rep. Chip Roy (R-TX) blasted the deal for exceeding the $1.59 trillion spending limits set in the debt ceiling agreement from last summer. And Rep. Eric Burlison (R-MO) called the deal a “sham” that was further evidence that “both parties are addicted to reckless spending.”
If this feels like deja vu, that’s because it is. Johnson is falling into the same traps that plagued and ultimately doomed McCarthy. The reality is that the Republican conference (and its bare-thin majority) in the House of Representatives is a wide-ranging coalition of competing interests. It is far from unified, and a growing list of vacancies is only making the coalition all the more tenuous.
With such a small majority, Johnson, like McCarthy before him, is once again tasked with navigating an impossible situation. He has to balance and negotiate competing interests within his own majority and negotiate with Democrats in the Senate and the White House. And looming over it all is the threat of a government shutdown.
It’s a job one should not wish on his worst enemy.
But despite Johnson’s unenviable position, the concerns raised by the Freedom Caucus and other more conservative Republicans are quite valid. The deal does not functionally curb federal spending and fails to achieve any significant conservative policy victories, including on border security — a topic Democrats have shown a willingness to negotiate on. And whether Johnson likes it or not, the Republican base is far more aligned with the Freedom Caucus, and 2024 is an election year.
It’s not unreasonable to conclude that the Republican majority in the House could squeeze more concessions out of Democrats, and the Freedom Caucus knows this. But a more hard-line negotiating stance raises the likelihood of a government shutdown, a possibility that does not sit well with Republicans in swing districts.
Back in October, the House Republican Conference took three weeks to choose a speaker after McCarthy was ousted. And it wasn’t until the conference locked itself in a room into the late hours of the night that members unified behind Johnson as their nominee.
Perhaps a similar solution is needed to bridge the divide in the conference and strengthen Johnson’s hand in negotiations. Until then, he won’t be able to enjoy his job.