Year in Review: Three revealing foreign policy developments of 2022
Tom Rogan
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2022 began with Russian President Vladimir Putin’s massive escalation toward the long-running war in Ukraine. It ends with Chinese President Xi Jinping’s sharp, protest-forced reversal of his “zero-COVID” policy. But what were the most revealing foreign policy moments of the year? Here are three that come to my mind.
AGAINST RUSSIAN ASSAULT, A BATTERY FOR DEFENSE WILL HELP IMMENSELY
1) Xi isn’t playing games with Taiwan: Xi views the subjugation of Taiwan as a critical test of the Communist Party’s 21st-century ambitions. Witnessing escalating U.S. political and military support for Taiwan, we’ve seen Xi escalate preparations for an attack. Many U.S. military and intelligence analysts now believe that such an attack may come within the 2023-2027 window. Following House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan in early August, the People’s Liberation Army has massively escalated its air and naval activity near the island democracy. These exercises have involved simulated attacks and appear designed both to pressure Taiwan and increase the PLA’s readiness to attack.
Some analysts believe that these concerns are exaggerated. But there’s no questioning that PLA investments and actions are heavily predicated on denying or defeating any U.S. military force sent to support Taiwan. Xi views his absorption of Taiwan as key to his legacy. He cannot easily tolerate increasing Western actions to support Taiwan without simultaneously risking his own credibility as China’s new Mao Zedong-style leader of destiny. Put simply, 2022 showed war is likely coming sooner rather than later.
2) Europe’s top powers are choosing China over the United States: As the U.S. prepares for a possible war with China, the three most powerful European economies aren’t exactly standing shoulder to shoulder with America.
French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz both recently underlined their willingness to appease China on security issues and human rights. They are doing so in recognition of Xi’s quid pro quo conception of politics and trade and in order to maintain privileged trade relationships. While the intelligence community of America’s closest ally, the United Kingdom, is aligned with U.S. concerns about China, the British government is pursuing a more cautious China policy.
As U.S.-China tensions grow, it will be increasingly important for Washington to prioritize allies who stand ready to support the U.S. against Chinese aggression. That means Australia, Japan, the Baltic states, and Finland. The Biden administration must also stop transferring military capabilities to Europe that are needed to deter China. Doing so risks the U.S. military’s posture in the Pacific while encouraging Europe’s sustained freeloading on defense spending.
3) Corruption ruined Russia’s military: Putin’s vast investments in his military over the past decade have not earned commensurate results on the Ukraine battlefield. Corruption appears to be the primary culprit. Rather than spending allocated funds to maintain vehicles and equipment, senior commanders stole much of it. In turn, Russian soldiers have been forced to fight against a well-armed and led Ukrainian military with grossly inadequate equipment and support. It’s a reminder that defense spending doesn’t matter as a top-line figure nearly so much as it matters how and where money is actually spent.
A caveat here comes in the form of Russia’s submarine forces and the research and development of new weapons. Well-led, skilled scientists and submarine crews have been given the freedom to do their jobs and are excelling. Russia’s submarine forces are now very capable.
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