Almost anyone under the retirement age could beat Biden in 2024
Zachary Faria
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It is almost certain that anyone under the retirement age can beat President Joe Biden next year almost by default. Naturally, Republican voters are still favoring the only candidate that could give Biden a chance.
For the first time since he became president, Biden’s approval rating is now lower than that of Vice President Kamala Harris. Biden’s approval, according to Monmouth University, sits at just 34%, with 61% disapproval. Harris is at 35% approval and 57% disapproval. Despite years of speaking gaffes and being transparently inauthentic, Harris is now more popular than Biden, not because voters like her much at all but because voters have soured even further on their 81-year-old president.
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Biden falling below Harris cannot simply be excused by the direction of the country. After all, voters have been sour on the state of things for the last couple of years, and Harris is a member of the same administration. Nor is it the pro-terrorist pressure campaign by Democratic Muslim activists that are mad that Biden isn’t outright abandoning support for Israel. The Monmouth poll found that Biden’s approval dropped among independents by 14 points since July.
Therefore, it isn’t just that things are bad. Biden’s approval is continuing to drop because things are bad and because of his age and cognitive decline. The fact that he is polling below Kamala Harris, of all people, suggests that voters would trip over themselves to back anyone not associated with Biden’s failing administration who is also not a decade older than retirement age. A GOP that nominates Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL) or Nikki Haley likely wins in 2024 by default of neither of those two being older than the average life expectancy (which Biden is).
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A GOP that nominates former President Donald Trump does not get that same cushion. All the talk of polls showing Trump leading Biden by substantial margins now is smoke and mirrors, in part because Trump is not yet the focus of the 2024 cycle the way Biden is. More notably, a recent New York Times/Siena College poll finds that Biden is leading Trump by 6 points among voters who voted in 2020 (Biden won those voters by 4 points last time) and Biden is leading by 2 points among the likely 2024 electorate.
The possible paths are clear. A younger Republican coasts to victory over Biden by virtue of not being old and not being responsible for the country’s decline. A Trump nomination makes this a competitive contest despite Biden’s unpopularity because Trump is almost as old and just as unpopular. The risk-reward ratio of a Trump nomination is so poor that no sane person would risk the future of the country on it. Republicans are playing with fire even as the country burns, and it can, indeed, make things worse.