Trump up by 50 in Michigan GOP race?
Byron York
TRUMP UP BY 50 IN MICHIGAN GOP RACE? The political class has spent a lot of time obsessing about former President Donald Trump’s lead in the Republican early-voting states of Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina. There’s been less time devoted to how Trump is doing in some bigger states that follow the first three.
Michigan holds its primary just three days after South Carolina. It’s one of the biggest states on the primary calendar. And now a new poll by the Washington Post and Monmouth University shows that Trump has a 50-point — yes, a 50-point — lead in the Republican race there.
The poll showed that 63% of likely Republican primary voters surveyed said they will vote for Trump, versus 13% for Ron DeSantis, 13% for Nikki Haley, 5% for Chris Christie, and 3% for Vivek Ramaswamy. Just 4% said they had no opinion.
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It goes without saying, although it will be said here one more time, that a 50-point lead is huge. According to the RealClearPolitics average of polls in the early states, Trump’s lead in Iowa is 31 points, in New Hampshire is 25 points, and in South Carolina is 30 points. So 50 points is big.
Trump’s Michigan support also appears to be pretty solid. Seventy-two percent of those who said they will vote for the former president said they are “definitely” supporting him, while just 27% said they would consider supporting another candidate. For the other candidates, only about a third of supporters said they would definitely vote for them, while two-thirds said they would consider someone else.
“The most likely voters to turn out in Michigan’s Republican primary seem to be the Trump enthusiasts,” Monmouth polling director Patrick Murray said in a statement. “This probably includes many who were lukewarm on him eight years ago but are now fully behind his comeback bid. The other candidates just aren’t lighting the same kind of spark.”
It should be said that none of the candidates are actually campaigning in Michigan at the moment — they have their hands full with Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina. But the primary season, once it starts, moves fast. Voters in Michigan will be watching what happens in the early states. Perhaps events in those states will change Michigan voters’ view of the race. If Trump should stumble, or if DeSantis or Haley should surge, that could affect things. But right now, Trump appears almost astonishingly strong in one of the biggest races of the GOP season.
One last thing. For traditional political observers, some of Trump’s poll numbers seem wildly out of line with anything in memory. They challenge one’s idea of how primary and caucus races work. A natural caution kicks in — what if this is some weird anomaly that will go poof in 2024, leaving everyone who touted such numbers looking foolish? But the fact is, polling organization after polling organization, all of them, are finding such lopsided results in individual states and nationally. What’s likely true is that the polls are presenting an accurate picture of this moment. The public mood might shift markedly in the coming months, and then the polls will change, too, but the numbers we have reflect what is happening right now.
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