Biden has further to fall in the polls
J.T. Young
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Despite being in bad shape politically, President Joe Biden has not hit rock bottom yet. Unlike in 2020, Biden is going to have to campaign, and he is going to have a record to defend — his alone, not one he inherited from former President Barack Obama. And unlike in 2020 and throughout his presidency, the establishment media will have to cover him. As history has shown, exposure and coverage are not a good combination for Biden.
To be sure, Biden is still working from an advantage. As usual, the establishment media have given their preferential pass to a Democrat. Without it, Biden would likely not be running at all in 2024.
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It started in 2020 and has extended throughout his three years in the White House. During Biden’s 2020 campaign, the establishment media did not dwell on his two ignominious presidential runs in 1988 and 2008, both of which their coverage helped kill quickly. Nor did they raise the fact that he was passed over in 2016 for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton.
Despite this protection, Biden was nearly dispatched early on in 2020. He survived only by virtue of the South Carolina primary and by being the Democrats’ continual second choice as other candidates dropped out.
Once Biden received the nomination, the establishment media turned a blind eye to his refusal to campaign.
In office, Biden has been as elusive and reclusive with the press as he was in seeking the presidency. The establishment media have ignored his lack of transparency, just as they have the worst aspects of his presidency. Indeed, they’ve downplayed his administration’s policy pratfalls in foreign policy, immigration, domestic policy, environmental extremism, the economy, overspending, deficits, and debt — as well as his family’s mounting scandals.
At most, the establishment media have noted, nodded, and moved on, a far cry from the focus they gave, and continue to give, to former President Donald Trump.
Yet despite the establishment media’s favorable treatment, Biden has received unfavorable reviews from America. Biden trails Trump 44.5% to 46.6%, according to the RealClearPolitics average of national polling. Biden’s job approval is negative, 40% to 56%, and his favorability rating is equally poor: 40.2% to 55.2%.
Regardless, expect things next year to be even worse for Biden. The 81-year-old will finally have to increase his exposure because he is now running behind. Remember that in 2020, he won the popular vote by 4.4 percentage points but still only squeaked through in the Electoral College. Biden needs to be running substantially ahead to win reelection.
To make up this kind of ground, Biden will have to hit the campaign trail. This time, he needs exposure. And to get exposure, he needs media coverage.
Giving the establishment media something to cover will flip the script from what worked for Biden in 2020. Then, Biden had little record to cover. Although he had been in Washington for almost half a century, most of it was spent in the Senate. The remainder of his record came as vice president to the popular Obama. Compared to the incumbent, Trump, Biden had little to answer for, and his absence from the campaign trail offered little opportunity for anyone to hold him to account, which worked well for the media since they had little desire to cover him anyway.
This time, Biden is the incumbent, and, as always, reelections are referendums on the incumbent’s record. Does this mean that Biden will be aggressively campaigning or that the establishment media will be covering him fairly? Of course not. But the fact that he will have to be out there at all, and that the establishment media will have to cover him at all, are both far cries from the sheltered existence Biden has enjoyed so far, both in seeking the presidency and in being the president.
Considering how poorly Biden has fared with the public during four years of limited exposure to, and limited coverage by, the establishment media, increasing both significantly does not bode well for Biden. Even inside his “Biden bubble,” the president has been plagued by fumbles, bumbles, and stumbles.
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His 1988 and 2008 presidential run fiascos are reminders of what exposure and coverage can do to Biden. There is a reason he was passed over in 2016 and why he was the first choice of only a few Democrats in 2020, with most coming around only when they had no other choice. As Obama reportedly warned a Democrat in 2020: “Don’t underestimate Joe’s ability to f*** things up.”
If Biden’s poor performance today without exposure and coverage is any indication, the president has not yet bottomed out. Democrats have every right to be worried, because today may be as good as Biden is going to be.
J.T. Young was a professional staffer in the House and Senate from 1987-2000, served in the Department of Treasury and Office of Management and Budget from 2001-2004, and was director of government relations for a Fortune 20 company from 2004-2023.