UK government waves silly sticks at Greece and Argentina and carrots at China
Tom Rogan
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The United Kingdom will hold parliamentary elections by the end of January 2025. British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak can call the elections at any time, but if he hasn’t done so by mid-December 2024, an election will be held the following month.
Top line: An election is coming soon. Sunak’s problem?
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Polling shows the Labour Party opposition holding a sustained lead of around 15 points. That would translate to a significant parliamentary majority for Labour leader Keir Starmer. Generally viewed as a boring but moderate replacement for Labour’s far-left former leader Jeremy Corbyn, Starmer tempts independent voters to roll the dice after 13 years of Conservative-led government. Sunak is thus desperately searching for ways to boost his prospects. One Sunak focus rests on welfare reforms designed to ensure more of those who can work seek work in return for benefits. Small tax cuts were also recently announced. And Sunak has attempted to reduce immigration, albeit catching himself between the Conservative right and moderates. This led to Sunak’s dismissal of his top immigration minister earlier this month.
The prime minister is now looking to foreign policy as a cheap way to woo voters with his response to irrelevant controversies.
Last week, Sunak’s government decided that the Falkland Islands would make for a good distraction. A British territory in the far South Atlantic Ocean, the Falklands are claimed by Argentina. In 1982, an Argentine invasion force seized the islands before being militarily expelled by the British military. Perhaps stirring Sunak’s contemplation, that victory offered a major electoral boost to then-Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher.
So, when Argentina’s President-elect Javier Milei recently claimed the Falklands (what Argentina calls the “Malvinas”) are “non-negotiable” Argentine territory, Sunak’s government sensed an opportunity. U.K. Defense Secretary Grant Shapps took to X, formerly known as Twitter, to declare, “The Falkland Islands are British. That is non-negotiable and undeniable. 99.8% of islanders voted to remain British and we will always defend their right to self-determination and the UK’s sovereignty with [a patrol ship] now back to protect the islands.”
It would be one thing had Milei threatened another invasion. But he did not. Indeed, Milei stated, “It is clear that the war option is not a solution. … We had a war that we lost, and now, we have to make every effort to recover the islands through diplomatic channels.” It would be another thing if Argentina could credibly threaten the islands. But it cannot. The Argentine navy does not appear to have any operational blue-water warships. A slight problem vis-a-vis prospective invasion. Its air force is in slightly better shape and will soon receive F-16s. But Argentina’s military is no match for the U.K.’s Falklands garrison.
That garrison consists of highly advanced air defense networks, a reinforced infantry company, and four advanced fighter jets. U.K. attack submarines may also be lurking beneath the surface, likely undetectable by Argentine forces even in close combat (a concern with historic teeth). For various reasons, the U.K. would also have comfortable warning time of preparations for a new invasion, allowing it to deploy its crisis-contingency-centered fleet. In short, the U.K. could and would defeat an Argentine invasion. Milei knows it. Sunak knows it. Shapps is playing for a domestic audience rather than prudent deterrence.
That’s just the start. This week, Sunak’s government has stirred up a more ridiculous foreign policy controversy. Sunak has chosen the Elgin Marbles of London’s British Museum as his latest polling lever.
A collection of Ancient Greek artifacts, the Marbles were taken from Athens by a British diplomat in the early 19th century. Meeting sustained U.K. refusal, Greece has long sought the Marbles’s return. But when Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis raised the status of the artifacts during a visit to London this week, Sunak canceled their meeting. Sunak’s office claims Mitsotakis committed not to raise the matter. Mitsotakis’s office denies this. Mitsotakis then understandably refused the offer of a meeting with the deputy prime minister, only holding a meeting with Starmer. Greek officials told the BBC that Mitsotakis was “baffled” and “annoyed” by Sunak’s decision.
Greece is right to be annoyed.
The standard U.K. position has been to let Greek officials vent for domestic consumption, to reject it, and then turn to shared concerns such as Mediterranean security, trade, and broader bilateral cooperation. This is the right stance because Greece and the U.K. are close allies. The U.K. has a major military base on the island of Cyprus southeast of Greece, and the U.K.’s priorities align more closely with Greece than is the case with many other European Union nations. It is nonsensical to risk these shared interests with museum rhetoric.
What’s more pathetic, however, is the contrast in how Sunak’s government treats allies such as Greece and prospective partners such as Argentina and how it treats China.
Beijing poses a systemic threat to the U.K.’s domestic security, international security, and prosperity and the U.K.’s closest ally. Still, Sunak prefers to treat Beijing as a friend. Hesitant even to criticize Chinese President Xi Jinping’s regime, Sunak has filled his top foreign policy ranks with pro-China officials. Most notably, his new foreign minister and former Prime Minister David Cameron. Beijing has taken note, salivating at the prospect of dissecting the United States from its closest ally and thus encouraging other American allies to follow suit. In an editorial on Tuesday, Beijing state media optimistically asked, “Is China-UK relationship set for new era of cooperation?”
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Where does all this leave us?
Sunak’s weaponization of the Elgin Marbles and simultaneous prostration before China suggest he may have lost his foreign policy marbles.