A crowded field is Trump’s only hope of beating DeSantis
Conn Carroll
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There seem to be two separate worlds when it comes to 2024 Republican primary polling. In one world, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis is up 56% to 33% over Donald Trump in Suffolk University’s poll poll and 47% to 42% in YouGov’s poll. In the other world, Trump is up 45% to 30% in Politico’s poll and 55% to 25% in Emerson College’s poll.
So what gives?
LATEST POLL HAS TRUMP LOSING BIGLY TO DESANTIS
If you dig down into some of these polls, the answer quickly becomes clear: when the choice is narrowed down to just the two men, DeSantis wins. When the choice is a field of Republicans that includes Trump and DeSantis, Trump wins.
For example, in the very same YouGov poll where DeSantis is beating Trump 47% to 42% head-to-head, Trump wins 35% to 33% when Mike Pence, Nikki Haley, and Larry Hogan are added to the field.
A similar story plays out in Harvard’s latest poll, which also features a crowded field and head-to-head matchups. In a crowded field, Trump leads by 23 points, 48% to 25%. In a head to head matchup, Trump is only up 55% to 45%. Throw in independent, and DeSantis takes a 52% to 48% lead in that head-to-head.
It’s hard to say which world of polls is more realistic. So far, Trump is the only one who has entered the race, so if anything, the inclusion of Haley and Cruz seems a little premature. Then again, DeSantis hasn’t announced, either. We simply don’t know who else will get into the race. And it’s possible what happened in 2016 will change how many candidates and voters treat the race this time.
In 2016, Trump was able to win early primaries with as little as 30% of the vote, thanks to a crowded field that split the rest of the support. Every other Republican was planning to survive long enough to face Trump one-on-one, but then as other candidates dropped out, many voters switched to Trump as their second choice. When Marco Rubio dropped out in March, Ted Cruz’s support did go up from about 20% to about 30%. But Trump’s support also went up, as did John Kasich’s. Trump didn’t cross 50% support until late April.
In short, if Trump is going to win the nomination again, he is going to need some major help from someone like Larry Hogan or Liz Cheney getting into the race. It will be interesting to see if anybody decides to play that role.
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