Haley can only help Trump by attacking DeSantis in Iowa
Conn Carroll
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Nikki Haley says she is running to stop Donald Trump from winning the 2024 Republican presidential nomination, but her campaign’s decision to attack Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL) in Iowa can only help Trump win.
Haley’s campaign announced today that they are spending $10 million on television, radio, and digital advertising in both Iowa and New Hampshire starting in the first week of December.
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Investing in New Hampshire makes sense for Haley. Her centrist stance on abortion plays well in a state where DeSantis’s six-week abortion play has turned off many voters. Haley is clearly ahead of DeSantis in almost all of the most recent New Hampshire polls.
But Iowa is a different story. DeSantis’s pro-life message is succeeding in Iowa, and it offers Republican voters a clear contrast with Trump who, like Haley, is a moderate on abortion.
More importantly, however, when you dig down into the most recent Iowa polls, which do show Haley and DeSantis tied, you see that Haley has no chance to win the state because while her supporters would vote for DeSantis if she dropped out, DeSantis’s voters would vote for Trump if he dropped out.
In other words, if Haley were to attack DeSantis in Iowa, for every voter she turned away from DeSantis, she would only be adding to Trump’s lead because DeSantis voters just don’t like Haley.
And that is before Haley starts attacking DeSantis. Haley will only alienate more DeSantis voters if she starts attacking him.
Also, Haley doesn’t really need an Iowa win for her own campaign to succeed. If DeSantis wins, thus denying Trump an early knockout victory, that still allows Haley to win in New Hampshire and then her home state of South Carolina.
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DeSantis would have a win, yes, but Haley would have two. And Trump’s campaign would be reeling.
Haley should be investing in New Hampshire and South Carolina. Any money she spends in Iowa would only help Trump.