Israel war shows US allies must do more for their own defenses
Washington Examiner
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The United States has rightly sent military forces to deter Iran from widening the Israel–Hamas war. Israel is a democratic ally facing enemies that seek to annihilate it. The Biden administration is right to defend Israel, and Congress should meet the call to provide Israel with the assistance it needs to win the war.
Yet this must also be a learning moment for Washington and its other allies. The learning moment that the U.S. cannot provide a total defense umbrella everywhere all the time.
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Since Hamas’s Oct. 7 attack on Israel, the U.S. has sent a large number of finite military assets to the Middle East. These include two carrier strike groups, a guided missile submarine, an undisclosed number of attack and nuclear ballistic missile submarines, numerous cruisers and destroyers, an expeditionary force consisting of more than 2,000 Marines, thousands of soldiers, some of the most advanced air defense systems, special operations forces, and Air Force fighter and bomber squadrons.
These assets do not grow on trees. Their deployment to the Pentagon’s Central Command theater requires a massive investment of resources and logistical efforts. Keeping these forces forward deployed away from their home bases and ports will add significant future maintenance requirements. This is already a particular problem for the Navy’s and Air Force’s abilities to maintain their key combat forces at high readiness.
Moreover, while the U.S. might have its eye on Iran, other global adversaries aren’t inclined to give Washington any breathing room.
First up, there’s Russia. Nearly two years after Russian President Vladimir Putin invaded Ukraine, our European Union allies have added only mild boosts to their defense budgets. Some haven’t added anything. The EU’s top two economies, France and Germany, also remain reluctant to deploy their forces in support of NATO’s deterrence.
For example, when the U.S. sent 100 aircraft to a recent exercise simulating NATO’s defense of Germany, France sent just one aircraft. Despite French President Emmanuel Macron’s “strategic autonomy” rhetoric, it is the U.S. that continues to carry the excessive weight of NATO’s defense, including with deployments of the most precious capabilities such as F-22 fighter squadrons. This is an intensive, expensive, everyday job. It is the U.S. Air Force, for example, that also flies the vast majority of expensive air-to-air refueling and intelligence operations in Europe.
The ensuing reality is clear. Were Russia to expand the war in Ukraine against NATO, either in terms of conventional or nuclear forces, it would be the U.S., the Baltic States, and Poland that would have to hold the line. The pathetic state of other European armed forces’ logistics would mean their reinforcement at scale would take weeks. A problematic arrogance sustains here. The EU proudly congratulates itself for doing only slightly more than the U.S. for Ukraine, for example. It does so even though four EU member states border Ukraine. The U.S. is 3,990 miles away from that courageous democracy. Is this fair? Is it sustainable?
Then there’s China’s threat to Taiwan.
Chinese President Xi Jinping has ordered his military to be ready to conquer Taiwan by 2030. The People’s Liberation Army has spent decades preparing to do just that, massing a vast array of advanced anti-ship ballistic missiles (focused on U.S. aircraft carriers), air defense destroyers (focused on U.S. Navy carrier air wings and Air Force fighter squadrons), and other potent means of denying the U.S. military access to the Western Pacific. Not content with threatening Taiwan, Xi’s warships are now threatening conflict with the Philippines (a U.S. treaty ally).
The Philippines does offer hope via President Ferdinand Marcos Jr.’s resolve against China’s aggression. But Taiwan is another matter altogether.
Facing the annihilation of its democratic sovereignty, Taiwan’s leaders and people act as if they’re facing a temporary economic downturn — something unfortunate and uncomfortable but not deserving of urgent preparation. The proof of their delusion is best underlined by Taiwan’s 2.5% of GDP defense budget for 2024. This solemn statistic feeds into the total inadequacy of Taiwan’s maritime defense and its reserve forces. The reality? Banking on U.S. concerns over protecting Taiwan’s semiconductor base and ensuring the Pacific doesn’t become a Chinese imperium, Taiwan assumes the U.S. will do most of the fighting if Xi attacks.
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As with those of Europe, Taiwan’s gambit is dangerous. Doing everything, everywhere, the U.S. is becoming overstretched. American concerns over allied burden sharing are again likely to become a populist rallying cry.
Do not misunderstand us. America’s alliances are of great importance. They directly benefit the public. But alliances must rest on more than shared values if they are to be sustained. They must also rest on shared commitments. Denying that reality, too many allies are pushing the U.S. military toward a catastrophic breaking point: Deployed everywhere, we risk becoming unable to secure a necessary dominance anywhere. That cannot be regarded as beneficial to our national interest.