The debates started the race, but Iowa will decide its direction now
Zachary Faria
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The third Republican debate most likely didn’t change the trajectory of anyone in the race, and nothing will until it’s time for Iowa voters to make their decision.
The first two debates set the direction of all the candidates. Former Vice President Mike Pence is out. Sen. Tim Scott (R-SC) has had his path consumed by fellow South Carolinian Nikki Haley, who cemented herself as the third option in the field after battering around Vivek Ramaswamy, who became a nonfactor. Chris Christie has made no impact, which is not a surprise given his focus has only been on former President Donald Trump. Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL) has solid and remains in second.
THE BIGGEST QUESTION FOR TONIGHT’S DEBATE
Through it all, former President Donald Trump has remained in hiding and in first place, courtesy of the politically motivated indictments against him pursued by Democrats who know he is the easiest opponent to beat in 2024. Barring an on-stage meltdown, neither this debate nor the next one will likely change much of anything. No matter how solid DeSantis performs or how many attacks Haley launches on her opponents or how often Ramaswamy makes a fool of himself, everyone’s paths have been carved.
The Iowa caucus will be what resets, or ends, this primary. If Iowa voters finally decide to move on from Trump, regardless of who they choose to back, it would breathe new life into the debates and possibly even force Trump to attend. Haley has the advantage of a favorable early state schedule with New Hampshire and South Carolina. DeSantis is the only Republican as well-liked as Trump and is the second choice for many Trump supporters.
It could all make for an interesting race, and one that is good for the GOP, but none of it matters if Iowa just reaffirms the GOP’s commitment to Trump. Either Iowa Republicans grow bored of the losing and the broken promises that define Trump’s campaign, or the GOP continues on its complacent path and sleepwalks into a Biden (and Vice President Kamala Harris) victory.
The debates will still offer their own form of intrigue, but they will not change the race unless Iowa shakes it up first. The Hawkeye State holds all the cards, and both the GOP field and Republicans across the country should hope that Iowans use this opportunity to reinvigorate the race.