Biden risks encouraging Iranian terrorist attacks
Tom Rogan
Iran is putting into action its belief that the U.S. will tolerate escalating attacks on its forces in Iraq and Syria. The Biden administration is encouraging this dangerous perception. A Pentagon spokesperson claimed on Tuesday that when it comes to Iran, “deterrence is incredibly strong on our side….”
This is absurd stuff. If the administration truly believes that very occasional U.S. airstrikes on unoccupied IRGC warehouses are providing “incredibly strong” deterrence against relentless Iranian rocket strikes, what on earth would weak deterrence look like?
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Iran is testifying to the gross inadequacy of rhetoric and submarine tweets as substitutes for actual deterrence. Ayatollah Ali Khamenei may not want a regional escalation of the Israel-Hamas war, but he certainly wants to damage U.S. interests. And he clearly believes Washington will keep allowing him to do so without major riposte. This isn’t simply a problem for U.S. commanders who must be tearing out their hair at the Biden administration’s weakness. Nor is it just a problem for those U.S. military personnel now forced to sit in bunkers. It’s a problem for Americans everywhere. After all, Biden’s timidity surely fosters Iran’s increased confidence that it can expand its terrorist campaign across the world.
This is not a hypothetical concern. For more than three years, Iran has sought revenge for the January 2020 U.S. drone strike that killed Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Quds Force commander Qasem Soleimani. Former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, State Department Iran tsar Brian Hook, national security adviser John Bolton, and others have all faced repeated Iranian assassination plots. The Biden administration has responded by providing resource-intensive protective details to these individuals. But as with its response to Iran’s present rocket attacks, the administration has been loathe to even prosecute the Iranians responsible for the assassination plots. Let alone target them for more decisive action.
The ensuing challenge is that Khamenei and Soleimani’s Quds Force commander successor Esmail Qaani now see a pattern of American weakness. This is catnip to these Khomeinist ideologues, leaders who find theological purpose in blood feuds and what they perceive as courageous acts of martyrdom. If Iran believes it can relentlessly attack American soldiers with relative impunity, might it also believe it could attack American tourists or diplomats in Europe or Latin America with relative impunity?
The short answer is yes.
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When Joe Biden was vice president in 2011, Soleimani tried to blow up the Saudi ambassador as he dined at Washington, D.C.’s Cafe Milano restaurant. When warned by a U.S. informant the IRGC had recruited to carry out the attack that the explosion would kill many civilians, the IRGC handler responded, “if a hundred go with [the ambassador], f*** ’em.” The Obama administration did nothing of consequence in response to this attempted act of war.
As president, Biden’s similarly tepid action risks encouraging Iran toward the same belief today. Americans may pay for it.