Why Biden will likely soon go to Israel
Tom Rogan
President Joe Biden is debating when to travel to Israel as it recovers from Hamas’s mass casualty attack on Oct. 7. The New York Times reports two complications standing in the way of an imminent presidential trip. First off, security concerns. Second, the political concern of associating Biden with a bloody Israeli ground operation in the Gaza Strip.
While these factors are obviously relevant, I suspect Biden will go to Israel sooner rather than later.
Security concerns can be mitigated. For a start, Hamas, the Lebanese Hezbollah, and the Palestinian Islamic Jihad would be highly unlikely to attempt an attack on Biden and even less likely to succeed in any such attempt. Any such attempt would greatly jeopardize those groups’ relationships with Qatar and Turkey, U.S. allies that otherwise provide invaluable financing, logistics, and hosting support to them. After all, any attack on Biden would force U.S. allies to curtail their support for the terrorists in fear of being targeted for U.S. retaliation alongside them.
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Moreover, while attack plots against Biden could not be ruled out, Biden’s security envelope would be extensive. The U.S. Secret Service and its Shin Bet counterpart have an excellent relationship. The president’s avoidance of southern and northern Israel and the West Bank would also mitigate his vulnerability. And sailing just off the Israeli coast, the USS Gerald R. Ford aircraft carrier would provide a powerful support base even in a worst-case scenario such as a surprise Hezbollah or Iranian missile attack.
Political concerns over Biden being associated with an Israeli ground offensive into Gaza are also exaggerated. Yes, the White House wants to mitigate Palestinian civilian casualties and the associated risks of tensions with its Arab allies, or Iranian escalation. Still, it is unlikely that any Israeli ground operation will lead to a humanitarian disaster in Gaza.
The Israelis want to recover the nearly 200 hostages that Hamas has hidden in the strip. Leveling Gaza will not achieve that objective nor conform to Israel’s moral standards. Israeli overhead surveillance of Gaza, via drones and aircraft, will also enable unprecedented targeting of Hamas infiltration units that approach Israeli ground units. And while Biden knows a ground operation will be bloody, he appears to recognize that it is also necessary. The scale of threat that Hamas has proven to pose is simply intolerable. The White House will accept that some criticism over Israeli action is inevitable.
At the same time, however, Biden’s arrival in Israel would signal support to an ally and a Jewish people who have suffered a great loss. It would repudiate the moral vacuousness of too many in the West who believe Israelis somehow had this atrocity coming. It would draw contrast to the strategy that China and Russia are now applying toward Israel. And it would inject greater friction into Iran’s consideration of whether to join this war.