California’s continued decline
Conn Carroll
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Democrats who hold out California as a model of governance for the nation were quick to blame COVID-19 for the state’s first-ever decline in population in 2020. But two years later, California’s population continues to shrink, and there doesn’t appear to be any desire or hope to reverse the state’s decline.
The Public Policy Institute of California released a new report this month detailing California’s declining population and identifying what is behind it.
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The main driver of California’s declining population is residents leaving for other states, the Republican stronghold of Texas being the most popular destination.
California’s high cost of housing, driven by the state’s strict environmental laws, is one of the biggest reasons why families are leaving the state. A recent PPIC poll found that 70% of California residents identified housing costs as a “big problem” in their community, and a full third of residents said they were considering leaving the state entirely for cheaper housing in other communities.
But unlike in previous decades, when California was only losing low- and middle-income residents, California is now losing high-income college graduates as well. And the net loss of residents with a college degree actually began before the pandemic — in 2018.
California’s birth rate is also declining at a rate faster than the rest of the nation. As recently as 2008, California had an above-average and above-replacement-rate-level fertility rate of 2.15 births per mother. But by 2020, California’s birth rate had fallen to 1.52, the seventh-lowest in the nation.
PPIC correctly identifies the decline in marriage as the driving force behind California’s declining birth rate. The percentage of Californians who are married is at an all-time low, and when Californians do get married, they do so later in life, shrinking the window of possible births.
The one bright spot for California population-wise is that international migration has bounced back since the pandemic. California may be an overpriced dystopia overrun by crime and homelessness, but it is a better place to live than full-fledged socialist countries such as Venezuela and Cuba.
But even as California imports working-age men from abroad, it is rapidly becoming an aging population. For now, the state has more children below the age of 18 than adults over the age of 65, but if current trends continue, that will change in 2030, at which point senior citizens will outnumber children.
PPIC advises that “improving housing affordability through residential construction will be crucial to stemming outmigration, especially among middle- and low-income households.” And it is true: California will have to build far more housing to reverse its population decline. But housing isn’t the only necessity that is abnormally expensive in California. Thanks again to stringent environmental regulations, California has the most expensive gas in the nation and among the highest energy costs generally as well.
Until California starts prioritizing family affordability over reducing carbon emissions, expect the state’s population to keep falling.