The three weapons of Moscow’s disinformation war
Janusz Bugajski
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As Ukraine’s counteroffensive pushes back Russia’s control over captured territories, Moscow is firing a barrage of disinformation to influence Western leaders to terminate support for Kyiv. The correlation between Russia’s military retreat and its verbal offensive could not be starker and needs to be identified and countered by policymakers and analysts.
Three core propaganda weapons can be identified in statements from Russian officials, media outlets, and online social networks: That Ukraine is losing the war, that international support for Kyiv is fading, and that Russia is getting stronger. These falsehoods are repeated by some Western politicians, either because of political sentiments toward Russia or to discredit governments that are providing military aid to Ukraine.
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The most glaring disinformation asserts that Ukraine’s counteroffensive has failed. Moscow relies on public ignorance of military operations against entrenched defensive fortifications. Paradoxically, Ukraine’s rapid victories over Russian forces in Kyiv, Kharkiv, and Kherson have made the Zelensky government a victim of its own success. Ukraine’s thrust through Russian defenses in Zaporizhzhia and Donbas would have been faster if Washington had not delayed the supply of necessary weapons and allowed the Russians to build their fortifications. Nevertheless, Western officials and military experts acknowledge Ukraine’s steady success in liberating its territories.
A second Russian deception is that Ukraine is losing international support. Propagandists are fixated on several populist Republicans in Congress who claim that Washington should stop writing “blank checks” for Ukraine and that military assistance should be diverted to Israel following the Hamas attack. In reality, Congress has provided just over $101 billion or only 0.43% of America’s gross domestic product. There is close oversight over all allocations, most of this money is invested in America’s military industry, and the armed forces of one of America’s chief adversaries are being systematically destroyed without a single U.S. casualty. In addition, total European commitments to Ukraine now exceed U.S. allocations, with 20 European countries providing more than Washington as a percentage of their GDP.
The third Kremlin talking point claims that Russia is getting stronger while defending traditional Christian values against globalism and liberalism. In reality, Russia’s battlefield casualties are approaching 300,000, including 120,000 deaths. Russia had an active military of some 1.1 million at the start of the war but has seen many of its most competent units decimated and masses of equipment destroyed, including several key vessels in its Black Sea fleet. Russia’s military budget now exceeds a third of state spending while energy revenues are falling. This diverts investment from the civilian economy, depletes spending on social services, and fuels a steady collapse in living standards.
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Russia disguises its military defeats and economic downfall by projecting itself as a strong supporter of national sovereignty against U.S. hegemony and as a beacon of family values. While the first claim fools leftist and anti-American governments, the second claim fools many conservatives and evangelicals in America. In reality, Russia is one of the last remaining imperialist and colonial states that seeks to expand its dominions. At the same time, its anti-conservative record is unequaled, with consistently high rates of abortion, divorce, family violence, alcoholism, and drug use among a population that rarely visits its Orthodox Churches. The most traditional and religious populations in Russia are the non-Christian denominations, particularly Muslims in the poorer republics.
Moscow’s three-pronged information war is designed to convince Western governments to push Kyiv into a “peace settlement,” in which it would surrender a part of its territory. Such a deal would also entail halting arms supplies to Ukraine and lifting economic sanctions on Russia. At the same time, Moscow stokes conflicts in the Middle East and the Balkans by encouraging Hamas and Serbia to attack U.S. allies in order to switch Western attention away from Ukraine.
Janusz Bugajski is a senior fellow at the Jamestown Foundation in Washington, D.C. His recent book is Failed State: A Guide to Russia’s Rupture. His forthcoming book is Pivotal Poland: Europe’s Rising Strategic Player.