Israel war: US carrier strike group deployment is focused on Lebanese Hezbollah
Tom Rogan
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The deployment of the USS Gerald R. Ford-led Carrier Strike Group 12 to the eastern Mediterranean Sea has one key mission: deterring the Lebanese Hezbollah from opening a second northern front against Israel. This concern took on added concern on Monday when Hezbollah and Israeli forces exchanged fire. A number of Hezbollah fighters were killed in that skirmish.
The aircraft carrier and its escorts will pass Sicily around midmorning Eastern Daylight Time Tuesday and arrive on station off Lebanon sometime on Thursday morning. Alongside its destroyer and cruiser escorts, the strike group has a very significant air-to-ground combat capability. If so ordered, it could launch hundreds of Tomahawk cruise missiles at Hezbollah forces and command centers. Israel could provide the intelligence to support these strikes. Indeed, at least one Israeli “Oron” reconnaissance aircraft flew a surveillance mission against Hezbollah from off the Lebanese coast on Monday.
Of note, the Gerald R. Ford’s strike group’s embarked Carrier Air Wing 8 has an electronic warfare squadron and four F/A-18F fighter squadrons, three of which flew in support of Lebanon-related operations in the 1980s. Importantly, the eastern Mediterranean is not the East China Sea. Neither Hezbollah nor the Lebanese Armed Forces have the capacity to significantly threaten any of the strike group’s assets.
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Regardless, the speed with which the Biden administration ordered this deployment indicates its concern over possible Iranian-orchestrated efforts to open up a second front. Because of the risk of Israeli forces being excessively stretched on two different fronts, it is feasible that Biden might order the strike group to conduct limited operations against Hezbollah positions along the Israeli border. But even were the U.S. reluctant to take direct military action against Hezbollah, Carrier Air Wing 8’s intelligence and airborne radar capabilities would be of significant support to IDF air operations.
Top line: Hezbollah knows that this carrier strike group could impose significant costs on it. The group’s leader, Hassan Nasrallah, and his patrons in Tehran must thus now factor in an additional risk as they consider their next moves.