Israel war: New indications of Israel strategy for Gaza ground offensive
Tom Rogan
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Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has pledged a decisive military response to the catastrophic Hamas invasion of Israel on Saturday. Hamas killed at least 900 Israelis and kidnapped more than 100 others. We’re beginning to see indications of Israel’s military strategy in the Gaza Strip.
The Israeli Defense Forces’s focus currently centers on securing Israeli territory around Gaza and launching air and artillery strikes against Hamas command centers, observation posts, and weapons stockpiles in Gaza. The scale of these IDF strikes and their expansive types of targets indicate shaping operations for a coming ground offensive. Other indications for that ground offensive come via the IDF’s reservist mobilizations and the suspension of energy, food, and water supplies into Gaza.
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While these resource restrictions will obviously hurt innocent Palestinians, they will also increase pressure on Hamas in terms of its freedom of action and force sustainment. Israel’s undercover Yamas border police unit is almost certainly already operating deep inside Gaza. The Israeli air force’s Shaldag special forces unit is also likely directing airstrikes from inside Gaza. The efficacy of these special forces units is likely to be high as a result of the unprecedented freedom of action they will now be given. The Israeli government’s tolerance for IDF casualties is far higher in light of Saturday’s attacks.
The Israeli government is well aware that any ground incursion will be bloody for both the IDF and Palestinian civilians. Still, the only way Israel can significantly degrade Hamas as a terrorist force and political entity is to dismantle its infrastructure at the source. In turn, Gaza’s southern border with Egypt around Rafah will be a key focus of early Israeli ground force action. This will be critical to destroying tunnels and other smuggling routes from Egypt, thus reducing Hamas’s supplies. A ground offensive into northern Gaza is also highly likely, with an IDF dissection operation in less urban areas of central Gaza also possible. This dissection of northern and southern Gaza would strangle Hamas’s freedom of movement while enabling follow-on Israeli operations.
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Israeli special forces activity to rescue hostages is also likely to commence in short order. While these rescue operations will be high risk, Israel has units trained for just this kind of activity. Namely, the army’s Sayeret Matkal (Delta Force equivalent), the border force’s Yamam (FBI Hostage Rescue Team equivalent), and the navy’s Shayetet 13 (Navy SEALs equivalent). The high number of hostages that Hamas has taken means that it will not be able to hide the location of all of them or ensure that only its best personnel are assigned to guard the hostages.
Top line: I suspect that the IDF is about to launch a multiweek ground-air campaign of grand ambition. The Mossad is also likely to be booking its operatives into hotels in Doha. The overarching strategic objective will be to ensure that Hamas is no longer capable of conducting terrorist activities at any significant scale.