Could Russian spies in UK be traded for Evan Gershkovich?
Tom Rogan
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Charging five Bulgarian residents of the United Kingdom with spying for Russia, the U.K. has provided new potential for a prisoner swap that might see Russia release journalist Evan Gershkovich and possibly also former Marine Paul Whelan. While I’m unaware of any direct conversations between the United States and the U.K. over such a swap, Washington has been talking with its allies as to any prisoners they might be willing to release in exchange for Gershkovich’s freedom.
A Wall Street Journal reporter, Gershkovich was detained by Russia’s FSB domestic security service in March. He has been unjustly charged with espionage in a gambit by Moscow to use him as a bargaining chip. Russian President Vladimir Putin’s appetite to take Americans hostage has been reinforced by the Biden administration’s appeasement-centric response to Russia’s detention of other Americans, such as WNBA player Brittney Griner. Still, the five people now charged with espionage offenses in the U.K. offer a new opportunity to bring Gershkovich home.
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All Bulgarian citizens, the spies were arrested in February under sealed indictment. Operating as nonofficial cover intelligence officers, without diplomatic passports or what Russia calls “illegals,” they held a range of cover occupations, including those of beautician, financier, and MMA competitor. I understand that the evidence against the spies is overwhelming and centers on their surveillance of prospective Russian targets of interest in Europe and the U.K. The five Bulgarians were controlled by another Russian GRU illegal, Jan Marsalek. An Austrian citizen by birth, Marsalek now lives in Russia.
Russian attack targeting operations have been a priority for the U.K.’s MI5 domestic security service following the Russian GRU military intelligence service’s March 2018 attempted murder of a former Russian GRU officer, Sergei Skripal. Skripal and his daughter became very seriously ill after being poisoned with a highly concentrated nerve agent. An innocent British woman was killed as a result of the GRU’s callous disposal of its weapon delivery device: a disguised perfume bottle. A police officer who tended to the Skripals also became seriously ill.
The ensuing questions for the U.S. and the U.K. are twofold. First, will Moscow will make a deal for the release of these spies? Second, will the U.K. will accept Gershkovich’s release as a commensurate benefit?
On the first point, it’s worth noting that Putin has traditionally shown high regard for repatriating Russian spies. Putin’s former career as a KGB officer lends him an especially high regard for Russian illegal officers. He has spoken repeatedly about the special service these officers provide and has prioritized their activity across the big three Russian intelligence services: the GRU, the FSB, and the SVR foreign intelligence service. Putin might also view his state media apparatus as a means of portraying the repatriation of these five spies in a heroic, nationalist light — something that has increasing value as Russia’s war effort in Ukraine suffers increasingly public challenges.
When it comes to the U.K. viewpoint, it could be argued London owes Washington in terms of Russia-related prisoner trades. After all, Skripal was the prized release of a July 2010 Russia-U.S. spy swap. Until then, Skripal had been imprisoned in Russia for spying for Britain’s MI6 foreign intelligence service. The 2010 spy swap saw the U.S. release 10 SVR illegals who had been arrested after a long-running FBI investigation.
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The U.K. might have added political motive to accede to a Biden administration request to trade the Bulgarians for Gershkovich and other Russians more legitimately convicted of spying for the West. London might see this deal as a way to relieve tensions with the Biden administration over strategic differences toward China, for example.
Top line: Contemplation of this trade deserves discussion. And as I know all too well, Americans should be wary about traveling to Russia in the future.