How US and UK aircraft are spying on Russia in Ukraine, Belarus, and Russia
Tom Rogan
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Since the aborted June coup attempt in Russia by now-assassinated Wagner Group leader Yevgeny Prigozhin, the United States and the United Kingdom have been escalating their aerial surveillance of Russian, Belorussian and Wagner Group forces in Ukraine, Belarus and Russia. Their activity is necessary because other NATO member states either lack the capability or, as in France and Germany’s case, the cost-willingness to support this intelligence effort.
The U.S. military’s Ukraine-focused efforts center on daily flights over Romania and the eastern and southern Black Sea. It primarily involves unmanned drones, P-8 and P-3 maritime surveillance aircraft, and King Air B200 variants that gather signals (intercepting communications) and electronic (intercepting military electronic signatures such as Russian radar or jamming forces) intelligence.
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Reflecting the U.K.’s greater risk tolerance vis-a-vis possible confrontations with Russian forces, the U.K. effort centers on less frequent Royal Air Force RC-135 Rivet Joint aircraft (which intercept communications and military electronic signatures) operating over the Black Sea closer to Crimea, sometimes with fighter escorts. These aircraft seek to monitor Russian military activity in Crimea and southern Ukraine, Ukrainian supply vessels, and Russian fleet movements proximate to NATO member state Romania.
When it comes to spying on Russian territory, the targets are the Kaliningrad exclave wedged between Poland and Lithuania and Russian territory east of Estonia. While U.S. P-8 Poseidons regularly monitor Russian Baltic Fleet activity, the two most important aircraft are the U.S. Air Force E-8 Joint Surveillance Target Attack Radar System, or JSTARS, and the aforementioned British RAF RC-135 Rivet Joint. Both aircraft are also monitoring areas of eastern Belarus during their near-daily flights.
The E-8 JSTARS is a ground radar and imagery collection aircraft designed to identify troop formations, movements, and capabilities. In Europe, it’s particularly valuable in two regards. First, in keeping watch over Belorussian military and Wagner Group activities in Belarus. Second, in looking for possible Russian nuclear weapons movements in Belarus and Kaliningrad. While Wagner is dismantling most of the camps it formed in Belarus following the June coup, NATO fears the group may be used by Moscow to launch a semi-deniable provocation across the Polish border. As shown by my screenshot below of a JSTARS flight on Monday (from the ADSB Exchange flight tracking website), aircrews are flying circuits designed to capture maximal information from Kaliningrad (out of shot to the North) and Belarus (just to the West).
Estonia, at the forefront of Putin’s imperial dreaming, offers similar geographic advantages to NATO (further supplemented by Finland’s recent accession to the alliance). As shown in the screenshot below, the British Rivet Joints are flying circuits over Estonia, approximately 124 miles from St. Petersburg (circled red). That puts the city and surrounding areas well within the aircraft’s sensor range, facilitating the interception of communications from Wagner headquarters and other targets in the city. Putin’s hometown, St. Petersburg, also hosts key elements of Russia’s Western Military District. The Rivet Joints are also circuiting Kaliningrad.
Put simply, the U.S. and U.K. have very capable aircraft engaged in very intensive intelligence collection. As with other extensive efforts focused on Russia’s nuclear posture, this mission is foremost designed to provide early warning on Russian threats, and, in Wagner’s case, warning of a second coup attempt (although Wagner’s present activity suggests it is mainly interested in mourning Prigozhin).