How big can Trump’s lead get?
Byron York
HOW BIG CAN TRUMP’S LEAD GET? If you thought former President Donald Trump’s lead over the Republican field in national polls could not get any bigger — you thought wrong. The three most recent major polls, conducted in the last 10 days, show Trump with a lead of 47, 48, and 50 points, respectively. In the RealClearPolitics average of all polls, his lead is 43.9 points — higher than it has ever been.
One of the new polls is from Fox News, and it shows Trump with 60% support, with Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL) in second place, at 13%, 47 points behind Trump. DeSantis is barely ahead of entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy, at 11%. Former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley is at 5%, and former Vice President Mike Pence and Sen. Tim Scott (R-SC) are tied at 3%. Former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie is last with 2%. (The three also-rans, Burgum, Elder, and Hutchinson, are at 0%.)
So just counting the candidates who register any support at all, it’s a seven-candidate field. And for one candidate to hit 60% support in a seven-candidate field is remarkable. It’s just not done. But it is a good illustration of Trump’s special status as a former president in a field of never-been-presidents and never-will-be-presidents.
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But, you say, the national polls don’t show us anything! It’s the state polls that matter. After all, the Republican contest will play out in one state after another — Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, etc. Here’s the answer to that: First, 60% support in a national poll is so big that it does indeed show something, and that is the extraordinary level of loyalty a huge number of Republican voters everywhere feel toward Trump. If Trump were at 34%, 2 or 3 points ahead of his nearest competitor nationally, or even 5 or 10 points ahead, it might not show a lot. But 60? That’s serious.
Second, Trump has big leads in the early states, too. According to the RealClearPolitics average, Trump is up by 30.2 points in Iowa, 31 points in New Hampshire, and 34 points in South Carolina. Yes, those leads are smaller than Trump’s 43.9-point average margin in national polls, but they are still really big for the early states.
Just look at the new poll of South Carolina from Monmouth University and the Washington Post. It shows Trump in the lead with 46%, Haley next with 18%, Scott at 10%, DeSantis at 9%, Christie at 5%, and Pence and Ramaswamy at 3% each.
There are a few interesting things in there, including DeSantis being in fourth place in a GOP contest. That’s really bad news for the Florida governor. Also, Ramaswamy does not appear to be taking off in South Carolina the way he has elsewhere. And of course the big thing is that two of the state’s best-known politicians, Haley and Scott, are running against each other in a presidential primary in their home state and neither one is the leader.
There were some clear differences between South Carolina Republicans who support Trump and South Carolina Republicans who support another GOP candidate. Trump Republicans are more strongly anti-abortion: 73% said they believe abortion should be illegal in most or all cases, versus 44% of non-Trump Republicans who feel the same way. Trump Republicans also feel more intensely about parents’ rights: 90% said they believe parental rights are extremely or very important, while 73% of non-Trump Republicans said so.
Trump Republicans also feel more strongly about gun rights: 89% said gun rights are extremely or very important, while 68% of non-Trump Republicans said so. Eighty-nine percent of Trump Republicans said the Justice Department being used for political purposes is a serious problem, versus 64% of non-Trump Republicans. And finally, there’s a huge difference in the way Trump and non-Trump Republicans see the 2020 election. Among Trump Republicans, 87% said President Joe Biden won “due to voter fraud,” while only 7% said Biden won “fair and square.” Among non-Trump Republicans, 31% said Biden won “due to voter fraud,” while 62% said Biden won “fair and square.”
That’s not just a huge difference, it’s a huge difference that goes to the very rationale for the Trump candidacy: Do you believe Trump was cheated or not? On the other hand, giving poll respondents a choice between saying Biden won “fair and square” or “due to voter fraud” is a bad choice that probably misses a lot of GOP sentiment about the election. Many Republicans believe Biden won but still think there was something hinky about the 2020 voting. They’re not saying it changed the outcome, they’re not claiming there’s proof, but they feel there was something not quite right about the way the voting was conducted and want to see it done better in 2024. Asking a poll question in a way that discovers those feelings would be a good idea.
In any event, the newest polls show Trump’s lead momentum continuing, even as he rises to previously unthinkable levels.
For a deeper dive into many of the topics covered in the Daily Memo, please listen to my podcast, The Byron York Show — available on Radio America and the Ricochet Audio Network and everywhere else podcasts can be found.