Another bad week for Putin
Jon Sweet Mark Toth
Video Embed
Russia had another bad week.
Russian President Vladimir Putin’s attempt to plant the Russian flag on the moon‘s south pole ended in failure when the Luna 25 spacecraft crashed on the lunar surface.
SMALL BUSINESSES HELPLESS OVER SPIKE IN RETAIL THEFTS, SAY THEY FEEL ABANDONED BY LAWMAKERS
Then, on Wednesday, the Ukrainian military destroyed a Russian S-400 missile system in Crimea near the village of Olenivka on Cape Tarkhankut, further weakening the air defense umbrella for Russian forces on the peninsula. Suddenly, freeing Crimea is becoming a possibility.
That same day, Yevgeny Prigozhin’s aircraft plunged 28,000 feet from the sky north of Moscow. The founder of Russia’s Wagner Group mercenary force and nine other passengers and crew, including Prigozhin’s second in command, Dmitry Utkin, purportedly died on impact.
Putin’s spokesman, Dmitry Peskov, denied any Kremlin involvement in the “accident,” stating, “Right now, of course, there are lots of speculations around this plane crash and the tragic deaths of the passengers of the plane, including Yevgeny Prigozhin. … Of course, in the West, those speculations are put out under a certain angle, and all of it is a complete lie.”
Meanwhile, Wagner members in Russia released “chilling videos threatening revenge — and a new ‘March of Justice’ on Moscow.” The internal threat just ratcheted up while Ukrainian drones continue striking targets in and around Moscow. Putin may need an out, and his Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu may be “that guy.”
You know who did not have a bad week? India. One-upping Putin, New Delhi managed to land its Chandrayaan-3 successfully in the same region where the Luna 25 crashed.
Ukraine did well, too. In the early morning hours of their Independence Day, commandos planted the Ukrainian flag on Cape Tarhankut. Reports indicate Kyiv’s counteroffensive is progressing. Ukrainian forces penetrated Russian defenses in the Zaporizhzhia region, expanded toward Tokmak, secured Robotyne, and are making gains in Novoprokopivka and Ocheretuvate.
Ukraine also secured 61 F-16 fighter jets from Denmark and the Netherlands. While they will not make an immediate impact on the battlefield, they will be a part of the solution, and Putin knows it. Time was once considered an advantage for Putin. Now, it seems more like a liability, given the past week’s events.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky may be foreshadowing his decisive end state: deep strikes into Crimea coupled with a slow grinding approach toward the peninsula.
His chief of defense intelligence, Kyrylo Budanov, has been more direct.
“This special operation is vital, first of all, to make people believe,” he said. “Primarily people not even on the territory of mainland Ukraine but in Crimea. We need them to remember and believe that victory is just around the corner. And their liberation is not far off, either. And nobody is going to just leave them there. And when there are, let’s say, certain strikes on the territory of Crimea, it won’t end with that. There will be a ground operation and the recovery of our territories. Everyone will soon be home.”
Gen. Mark Milley, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, recently told reporters in Jordan, “It is still too early to judge the success or failure of the [counteroffensive]. … It is clear that so far partial success has been achieved.”
CLICK HERE TO READ MORE FROM THE WASHINGTON EXAMINER
But as Giampaolo Di Paola, Italy’s former defense minister and chairman of NATO’s military committee, said, “Ukraine has seized the initiative from invading Russian forces.”
The priority for Ukraine is to maintain momentum while setting conditions for an assault to isolate or reclaim Crimea. Moscow’s failure to land on the dark side of the moon foretells other defeats. More dark weeks are ahead for Putin and his generals in Ukraine.
Jonathan Sweet, a retired Army colonel and 30-year military intelligence officer, led the U.S. European Command Intelligence Engagement Division from 2012 to 2014. Mark Toth is an economist, entrepreneur, and former board member of the World Trade Center, St. Louis.