A new look at Iowa
Byron York
A NEW LOOK AT IOWA. The first Republican debate of the 2024 presidential primaries will be held Wednesday in Milwaukee. But the first votes, of course, will be cast in Iowa. Now, a new survey from the leading pollster in Iowa gives us a picture of how the race stands there. In particular, it sheds light on how likely Republican caucusgoers view former President Donald Trump’s legal problems, in the form of four indictments and 91 felony counts.
The short answer is: They’re not concerned. The poll, by the Des Moines Register and NBC News, asked likely GOP caucusgoers: “Thinking about the investigations into Donald Trump, do you think that he has or has not committed any serious crimes?” A big majority, 65%, said they did not think Trump has committed any serious crimes, while a far smaller number, 26%, said they do think Trump has committed serious crimes. Nine percent were not sure.
A quirk in timing gave the pollsters a unique look at Republican reaction to Trump’s indictments. As it happened, the polling began on Aug. 13 and lasted until Aug. 17. And then, as it happened, on Aug. 14, with the polling underway, Trump was indicted in Georgia. The timing of it gave the pollsters an unexpected look, in real time, at Republican reaction to a Trump indictment. As it turned out, they saw Trump’s support increase before their very eyes.
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“Before the announcement [of the Georgia indictment], when about one-third of the Iowa Poll respondents had been interviewed, Trump was named as a first choice, second choice, or candidate being ‘actively considered’ by 55% of those polled,” the Des Moines Register reported. “Among those polled after the Georgia indictment — about two-thirds of the total respondents — that climbed to 67%.”
Pollster Ann Selzer, a veteran of many Iowa polls, told the Des Moines Register, “This is the strongest evidence I’ve seen to date that these indictments, or at least this Georgia indictment, helped him.”
Overall, the new poll showed Trump with a big lead over the rest of the field in Iowa. The former president is the choice of 42% of likely caucusgoers, while Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL) is second, with 19%. That 23-point lead is consistent with other polls of Iowa in recent weeks. In third place is Sen. Tim Scott (R-SC), with 9%, and former Vice President Mike Pence and former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley are tied for fourth, with 6% each. In sixth place is former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, with 5%, and in seventh position is Vivek Ramaswamy, with 4%. Gov. Doug Burgum (R-ND) is in eighth place, with 2%, and all the others are somewhere less than 1%.
When you put this poll together with other Iowa polls, Trump has a 26-point lead over the field in the RealClearPolitics average of Iowa surveys. That is less than the former president’s lead over the field in national polls, which stands at 40.9 points. In the other early-voting states, Trump has a 31-point lead in New Hampshire and a 28-point lead in South Carolina.
Which means we have not yet seen any indication that Trump’s indictments have affected his standing with Republican voters. That might not change for quite a while, or it might never change. And it certainly might not change after the first GOP debate this week. A few days ago, I reported that DeSantis “appears fully prepared to trail Trump for the rest of this year, counting on a major change to occur in mid-January, when voting actually begins.” That is a reference to Iowa, where the caucuses will be held on Jan. 15. So change could be months away. And right now, at least, Trump remains strong in the first-voting state.
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