Trump is still untouchable
Kimberly Ross
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When former President Donald Trump was still a big general election gamble in January 2016, he said at a campaign stop in Iowa: “I could stand in the middle of Fifth Avenue and shoot somebody, and I wouldn’t lose any voters, OK? It’s, like, incredible.” He was right.
His fans’ devotion was incredible then. It remains incredible now, especially given how much has transpired since that moment. In March, Trump became the first former president to be indicted. Now, his list of indictments stands at four. And he continues to enjoy unprecedented support.
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Ever since Trump gained a path to the presidency, the Left has been looking for that one thing that will take him down. This search began before he was sworn in as the 45th president and continued during his time in office. Then, Jan. 6, 2021, happened. That day came at the end of Trump’s time in the White House, but it has defined his legacy. Skeptical voters had a list of reasons to dislike him before then. The magnitude of the day, continued lies about the election, and questionable motives have turned certain voters away from Trump for good. But not quite enough to turn the Republican tide.
Recent polling data at RealClearPolitics show Trump is still the man to beat on the Republican side. He maintains a huge lead over all other contenders, including Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL). A new Associated Press poll shows Trump’s support among GOP voters is actually up. When it comes to supporting his third run, the numbers have risen from 55% in April to 63% now. And in terms of favorability, 70% of Republican voters approve of him, up 10 percentage points in two months. In the midst of multiple indictments, Trump’s popularity among Republicans is strong.
Following the indictment brought by special counsel Jack Smith regarding the 2020 election, the Independent published “How Donald Trump finally met his match in Jack Smith.” Still, others have stated the Georgia indictment “poses a unique kind of threat … since state crimes aren’t subject to the presidential pardon power.” The collective anticipation of Trump opponents following each indictment is palpable. Each brings with it the possibility of serious consequences, though each differs in how legally threatening it is to the former president.
Time will tell whether the legal and national political ramifications upend Trump’s third presidential campaign. But when it comes to his standing in the Republican Party, there is little doubt his grip is secure. Polling data alone consistently show this to be true. The Trump juggernaut not only kept going during the worst days of his presidency but through Jan. 6 and beyond. Any decline in power on the right side of the aisle has been insignificant and brief.
Trump’s popularity in the Republican Party doesn’t mean he is the best choice in the future. It’s abundantly clear the GOP needs to turn the page to a younger, more experienced, and serious candidate such as DeSantis. Getting to that point in this election cycle seems next to impossible. But if the lesson is not learned and Republicans nominate Trump, they will likely lose to Joe Biden a second time. While the recent AP polling shows strong support among Republicans, it also shows 64% of people will not support Trump in November 2024. That is a problem, but apparently not enough of one to change the GOP’s current trajectory.
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Trump’s legal problems are numerous and complicated, but they may not substantively change his life. Democrats cheer at the thought of bringing down, once and for all, one of the most formidable political forces in American history. They hope the untouchable Trump has finally “met his match.” But legal problems are unlikely to quell his popularity or support among dedicated Republican Party voters.
Seven years ago, the hubris required to mention “shooting someone on Fifth Avenue” seemed unbelievable to the public. Now? That famous Trump braggadocio is par for the course. Most shocking of all: We know he was right.
Kimberly Ross (@SouthernKeeks) is a contributor to the Washington Examiner’s Beltway Confidential blog and a columnist at Arc Digital.