China warns US over Taiwanese presidential candidate’s visit
Tom Rogan
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Beijing is warning the Biden administration that it may respond aggressively to a U.S. visit by Taiwanese Vice President Lai Ching-te. Lai will stay overnight in New York on Saturday before traveling to Paraguay. The ruling party’s candidate for next January’s presidential election, Lai will then visit San Francisco before heading home.
China is furious.
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As the Communist Party’s Central Foreign Affairs Commission-led Global Times newspaper put it on Friday, “After a brief thaw brought by a string of trips by U.S. senior officials to Beijing, the U.S. has resumed its provocation on the Taiwan question.” The newspaper warned that Le’s visit, that of a “die-hard secessionist, will bring more danger and uncertainty … how Lai’s U.S. ‘transit’ is handled will be an occasion for China to closely examine the attitude of the U.S.” Leaving no doubt as to its ire, the Global Times hinted that military drills may follow Lai’s visit. If the Biden administration wishes to avoid such unpleasantness, it “should manage the words and actions of Lai.”
The ensuing challenge for the White House is twofold.
First, the White House cannot control what Lai says. He is running for president and will want to make some kind of impression during his U.S. visit. Whether that entails conciliatory rhetoric toward China of the kind that the Biden administration would prefer is unclear. At the same time, however, the White House cannot sacrifice the principle that Taiwanese officials are free to travel as they see fit. To do otherwise would encourage China’s belief that it can cajole the United States into major concessions on the Taiwan matter.
And yet, this concern is increasingly fraught with risk. Most U.S. military and intelligence analysts believe Chinese President Xi Jinping will order an invasion of the island democracy by 2030. China’s People’s Liberation Army is training for that possibility and how to defeat a U.S. military intervention in Taiwan’s support.
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But as China frequently emphasizes, there is no more sensitive matter for Beijing than Taiwan. And Beijing is now threatening to suspend high-level meetings between U.S. and Chinese officials, most notably with the dangled threat that Foreign Minister Wang Yi might not visit the U.S. in protest over Lai’s visit.
In turn, the Biden administration finds itself caught between Lai’s visit and the increasingly hard place of Beijing’s frustration. And the predictable outcome now seems all but certain: whether during Lai’s visit or in the weeks following, the two nations’ recent detente will fade amid their intractable political differences.