Japan sees a region on fire
Daniel DePetris
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After skimming Japan’s new defense white paper, one gets the sense that Asia is on fire. The 30-page strategy is screaming with warnings about the rules-based order coming under threat from resurgent authoritarian states (i.e., China and Russia) that are operating on a “might makes right” mentality. “Japan is facing the most severe and complex security environment since the end of World War II,” the Japanese Defense Ministry makes clear in its introduction.
As one might expect, the strategy is long and includes dozens of graphics. Some of them depict weapons systems currently under development by China’s People’s Liberation Army and maps showing PLA activities in the South and East China Seas. The big theme is impossible to miss: While Japan maintains a high-level defense alliance with the United States, it also needs to make sure it possesses the type of independent military capabilities that would prove crucial if Tokyo were to come under attack. For the Japanese, deterrence is the name of the game — and deterrence requires more investment in defense capabilities than the Japanese public may be used to.
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In general, the Japanese defense white paper merely codifies what Tokyo has already been doing since the days of the late Prime Minister Shinzo Abe. Tokyo is clearly rattled by China’s growing power and its even larger geopolitical ambitions, and it has no intention of sitting still.
Beyond the U.S., Japan has spent the last several years broadening defense relationships with countries in the region that share the same wariness toward Chinese power. In 2020, Tokyo agreed to begin exporting certain weapons systems to Vietnam and the Philippines (among others), two countries with their own territorial disputes with the PLA. In 2020-2021, Japan negotiated and then finalized a mutual military logistics agreement with India, which makes it easier for both states to conduct joint military exercises with one another.
Japan has invested considerable diplomatic energy into deepening military ties with Australia, agreeing in October 2022 to enhance interoperability between their forces and deepening intelligence cooperation on issues of shared concern. The Japanese Self-Defense Forces are also mulling joint naval exercises with the U.S., Philippines, and Australia and have chipped away at the antagonism that previously governed Tokyo’s relations with South Korea. In addition, the U.S. and Australia are planning to incorporate Japanese F-35 strike aircraft into their bilateral air defense drills, a point of agreement during Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin’s working summit with their Australian counterparts last week.
In terms of resources, the Japanese government has determined that defense spending as it used to exist won’t get the job done. In December 2022, Japan announced its aim to spend more than $309 billion on procurement, readiness, and research over the next five years — doubling its defense budget. About $35 billion will be earmarked for what Japanese defense officials have referred to as “counterstrike” weapons, such as longer-range missiles, that can hold enemy bases in China and North Korea at risk of retaliation after an attack. The once-controversial counterstrike option isn’t all that controversial anymore.
For officials back in Washington, the transformation of Japan’s defense policy and the willingness of successive Japanese governments to put the necessary resources behind it deserves support. A stronger, more lethal Japanese joint force means a stronger, more lethal ally that can actually contribute to the policy objectives the U.S. seeks to accomplish in Asia: Balancing China, keeping sea lanes open, and a fairer distribution of the defense burden, to name a few.
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Yet the U.S. also needs to be cognizant of how China, the Pentagon’s “pacing challenge,” will react to these developments. Initiatives Washington and Tokyo see as defensive could be interpreted as bellicose by Beijing, fueling even more military spending and PRC military exercises in waters claimed by Beijing. China is likely to strengthen its military partnership with Russia in response; Chinese and Russian naval forces conducted joint exercises in the Sea of Japan last week. Washington can forget about coaxing China into using its leverage to push North Korean leader Kim Jong-un toward nuclear talks. Why would Beijing help the U.S. with anything if it believes the U.S. is the driving force behind an anti-China military coalition?
Japan building up its military power could change the region in more ways than one.
Daniel DePetris (@DanDePetris) is a contributor to the Washington Examiner’s Beltway Confidential blog. His opinions are his own.