Pace yourselves: The 2024 GOP primary has barely even begun
Zachary Faria
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Listening to some political figures and media personalities, you would think that the 2024 GOP presidential primary ended in July 2023. In reality, we are nearly half a year from voters speaking for themselves, which means there is a lot of game left to be played.
The latest round of victory laps for and on behalf of former President Donald Trump came in the form of a New York Times/Siena College poll, which showed Trump leading the GOP primary with 54% support. Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL) is the only other candidate who has shown a pulse in GOP primary polls all year, let alone been a true contender. Yet he came in at 17%, with the B- through F-tier candidates all clocking in at 3% or lower.
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But of Trump’s supporters in that poll, nearly half are still considering other candidates. That means Trump is sitting at 28% hardcore support, with about 25% of GOP primary voters rolling with Trump as a placeholder. That is not exactly a surprise, given that we are still over three weeks away from the first debate and 5 1/2 months away from the first votes being cast. Normal people who aren’t in politics for a living aren’t exactly locked into the presidential cycle right now.
On top of this, Trump’s performance in various polls appears to be hitting a ceiling. Even with DeSantis’s poll numbers slipping, Trump has seen his numbers ticking down since May in polls from Harvard-Harris, Rasmussen, Quinnipiac, Morning Consult, and Reuters. The initial polling spike that propelled him further ahead of DeSantis was his being indicted in New York City, which was accompanied by a surge in fundraising, but his latest indictment from the Justice Department has led to a much smaller increase.
In other words, Trump may be hitting his peak popularity now despite being an entirely known commodity among GOP voters, nearly half a year before facing voters and three weeks out from a debate he is prepared to skip, which gives DeSantis plenty of time to win over persuadable (and currently unengaged) voters.
And speaking of fundraising, Trump’s campaign and Save America PAC are spending more money than they are raising, but not on actual campaigning. Trump’s joint fundraising committee has spent $57 million in the first half of 2023 while raising just under $54 million. According to the Washington Post, $40 million of that spending is on legal costs to defend Trump and others.
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Trump has name-brand recognition, which gives him the appearance of being a commanding front-runner, but his position is vulnerable once it comes time for the rubber to meet the road. He’s struggling financially, he may have hit his polling ceiling with half of his support open to jumping ship, and he may spit in the face of GOP voters by ducking debates just as he ducked several events in Iowa.
It’s only August 2023. If anything, everything we have seen up to now is off-season activities, with campaigns assembling their teams and game-planning. Kickoff will be the Aug. 23 debate, and even then, there will be over four months until the Iowa caucus. There is still a full season left to be played.