Chicago’s crime problem is about to get worse
Jack Elbaum
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Chicago’s crime problem is notoriously bad. And, over the past few years, it has only become more severe. Crime has spiked 88% since 2021 and there are no indications the trend will be reversing any time soon.
Even worse, Chicago’s new mayor, Brandon Johnson, just released a 223-page report titled “A Blueprint for Creating a More Just and Vibrant City for All” that included a truly disastrous “public safety” plan.
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The plan, which was inspired by a “struggle rooted in black liberation,” contains no recommendations to increase enforcement of crimes. Instead, it proposes getting rid of a gang database because of “racial disparities,” issuing an acknowledgment of harm toward black and Hispanic residents of the city, “re-envision[ing] the role of a police officer,” and providing mental health services — rather than actual safety — in communities that are “over-policed.”
Even that framing of the problem being “over-policed” communities rather than neighborhoods with too much crime indicates that the plan’s focus is not really on taking decisive action to reduce crime.
There is much discussion about “disparities” related to crime victimization rates in the report, but it is unclear how exactly those disparities can possibly be alleviated by doing nothing to make predominantly black neighborhoods safer. In the short term, mental health centers are not going to stop a single shooting by virtue of just being there. Neither will education on, and expansion of, government job opportunities.
The entire plan is just full of ridiculous ideas that, importantly, are no substitute for crime enforcement and active policing — which significant research shows does, in fact, work. The rhetoric sounds nice and flowery, but there is no real substance behind it. This is a tragedy because, as noted, the crime problem in Chicago right now is getting worse, not better. As such, implementing no policies that have proven to actually reduce crime — instead diverting resources to other, completely unreliable ideas — is a recipe to exacerbate the issue further.
The reason is unmistakable: Raising the costs of an activity results in less of it. When one wants to keep the costs of committing crime low, it should be no surprise when the city experiences more. The late Rabbi Jonathan Sacks explained that the only alternative to interest-focused policies such as raising costs (i.e. punishments) for an activity is a revitalization of the moral obligation residents feel toward one another so people simply do the right thing without coercion. Unfortunately, there is no reason to believe that social fabric is reappearing with Mayor Johnson’s plan.
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This all-talk no-action approach to crime was already tried during Johnson’s tenure, and it failed miserably. Prior to Memorial Day weekend, he held a press conference with a number of different agencies within the Chicago government on a comprehensive plan to ensure the safety of residents. He pledged that the Office of Emergency Management and Communications will “monitor citywide events & weather conditions,” and that there would be an increased police presence. Nevertheless, 60 people were shot that weekend — 12 fatally.
The “plan” in this new report is simply not going to cut it. And we know, just based on the data he cites in the report, that it is those people on whom Johnson is so focused on “protecting” who are going to pay the price.
Jack Elbaum is a summer 2023 Washington Examiner fellow.