Sweden belongs in NATO; Turkey doesn’t belong in the EU
Tom Rogan
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In a surprise development on Monday, Turkey dropped its opposition to Sweden’s bid to join NATO. Why is this development positive for the military alliance?
Well, for one example, consider what it would mean for the prestigious Russian Baltic Sea fleet during war. Because what it would mean is that the fleet’s total geographic encirclement by NATO. It would be blitzed with land, air, and naval launched missiles. It would be sunk if it tried to fight.
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This is just one reason Sweden’s looming accession is good news for NATO.
More broadly, the alliance’s looming 32nd member will strengthen both NATO’s deterrent and combat capability. Turkey’s support for Sweden’s membership application means that only Hungarian approval now stands in Stockholm’s way. A very poor NATO ally, Orban is nevertheless likely to provide that approval later in the year.
Sweden is a democracy that possesses capable combat forces. And while Stockholm must move faster to reach NATO’s 2%-of-GDP minimum defense spending target, it is on a better trajectory to do so than many other existing member states.
That said, the price Turkey’s Recep Tayyip Erdogan has extracted for approving Sweden’s NATO membership is a ridiculous one. Namely, Swedish support for Turkey’s enduring effort to join the European Union. A NATO press release on the agreement notes two elements of concern.
Point five says the two nations “commit to the principle that there should be no restrictions, barriers or sanctions to defence trade and investment among Allies. We will work towards eliminating such obstacles.”
Considering this language, we should look for clear U.S. commitments that this is not a hint at the removal of U.S. restrictions on the sale of F-35 fighter jets to Turkey. Then comes the statement’s EU-related point six. It notes in part that “Sweden will actively support efforts to reinvigorate Turkey’s EU accession process.”
The problem here is quite simple. The EU membership of Erdogan’s Turkey is about as conducive to the European Union’s political structure as gamma radiation is conducive to human health.
For all its flaws, and there are many, the EU fixes its political center on the democratic rule of law. Yes, it is absurd that the European Court of Justice is able to overrule the will of EU member state parliaments and supreme courts. Still, the EU is ultimately democratic. EU citizens have rights and the recourse to defend their rights against capricious government action. Sadly, where Turkey was once a vibrant democracy, Turkish rule of law now exists subordinate to Erdogan’s whims.
True, the Turkish president may have legitimately won a recent reelection campaign. Yet the treatment of Turkish opposition figures, independent journalists, activists, academics, and ethnic minorities makes clear that Erdogan’s regime has no regard for basic democratic norms. The idea that Turkey presently deserves to be admitted into the EU is thus a laughable one.
Fortunately, this Sweden-Turkey agreement does not require Turkey’s EU admittance, only that Sweden supports Ankara’s application. That means Sweden can now join NATO, as should be the case, and that Turkey will be prevented from joining the EU by other EU members. As also should be the case.