Biden’s Iraq comment underlines why foreign governments are focusing on Kamala Harris
Tom Rogan
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The CIA places a high priority on the broad analysis of foreign leaders. These efforts are led by leadership analysts at the CIA’s headquarters.
Others value the same concern, albeit sometimes in a different manner. The Russian SVR foreign intelligence service, for example, puts a very high priority on its psychological analysis of foreign leaders. (The Russian intelligence services are obsessed with brains in ways varying from the impressive to the weird to the malevolent.) As with its KGB 1st Directorate predecessor, some of the SVR’s methodologies are highly unorthodox. But when it comes to assessing foreign politicians, the primary interest rests in identifying possibilities for blackmail or influence. In Trump, for example, the Russians sought to manipulate his ego to their advantage (though the policy results of this effort are grossly exaggerated).
I note this concern because, within a 24-hour period from Tuesday to Wednesday, President Joe Biden has twice confused Iraq with Ukraine. The president’s latest confusion underlines why foreign governments will be taking a closer assessment of Vice President Kamala Harris. They suspect that she is increasingly likely to become president of the United States.
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Former President Donald Trump may be wildly unpredictable and subsumed by his own ego. That said, whether it’s Biden’s sometimes uncertain footing/biking or his mixing up of different people, places, and events, his age is showing increasingly. This is not to suggest that Biden cannot currently do his job. Whatever one thinks of his Ukraine policy, for example, Biden’s leadership of a global allied response to Russia’s war has been impressive.
Still, were Biden to be reelected in November 2024, he would be 86 years old on the day he left office in January 2029. Whether they be journalists, politicos, or foreign government officials, few in Washington think it likely Biden could remain president until that date. That brings us to Vice President Harris.
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Most foreign governments place a high premium on analysis which assesses the psychological profile and character of future American presidents. This is why, for example, foreign diplomats in Washington now regularly ask journalists and political staffers what they make of Biden’s age, Trump’s chances at reelection, and what impressions they have of Ron DeSantis.
Foreign adversaries beyond Russia share that interest. China will be particularly keen to know how Harris might act on matters such as Taiwan. They’ll want to know whether she values trade relations or the prioritization of human rights. They’ll want to know her tolerance for brinkmanship and her confidence in command. Iran will want to know if Harris would accept its pursuit of a nuclear weapons program or favor appeasement-minded diplomacy. Same with North Korea.
Top line: Biden is still the president, but every moment of confusion fuels further foreign attention on his deputy.