Five things to consider regarding Yevgeny Prigozhin’s Russian revolt
Tom Rogan
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The leader of Russia‘s Wagner Group mercenary force was once a personal confidante and powerful ally of President Vladimir Putin. He is now engaged in an insurrection against the Russian state. Reports that Yevgeny Prigozhin has suspended his advance do not mean this crisis is over; his forces retain control over Russian territory and the strategic initiative.
Here are five considerations.
1) What happens if and when Yevgeny Prigozhin gets to Moscow?
Although he is a likely psychopath, Prigozhin may reconsider his position and suspend his advance. He knows there is an extensive domestic security apparatus in the capital. The FSB security service and SBP presidential guard unit both retain well-armed special forces teams. They will fight to protect Putin and the power structure around him. The nature of Prigozhin’s very physical challenge to Putin’s regime means that Putin and his interlocutors know they have to fight to survive.
Putin’s advantage is that he has cultivated a powerful and loyal cadre of officers, especially in the security council and the FSB. He also retains an oligarch center, especially in the energy sector, which has the money and interest in keeping Putin in power.
These are brutal men comfortable with extreme violence. Just Google “Nikolai Patrushev” to see what I mean. Prigozhin is unlikely to be able to seize the Russian capital and overpower Putin. Of critical note, the Russian people have traditionally placed great value on stability at the top of power. Prigozhin does not reflect that.
2) What is the Russian military’s capacity and will to fight?
Much is unclear, but existing deep tensions between the Russian general staff and Wagner mean that the Russian military leadership will be predisposed to resist Wagner rather than seeking conciliation.
The question is whether front-line Russian army units are persuaded to align with Prigozhin. That may be happening in some limited areas, but a general shift toward Wagner seems improbable. Putin’s Chechen viceroy Ramzan Kadyrov, for example, has essentially declared a Jihad against Prigozhin.
3) How will this affect Putin’s position in the Kremlin?
This is a big issue for Putin’s perception of power. He appears weak in a manner that is anathema to his character and leadership narrative.
Whatever happens with Prigozhin, this incident will live long in the memory. In the short term, Putin is likely to move closer to Patrushev’s hawkish cadre in the Kremlin. That could pose escalation concerns in terms of Russia’s relationship with NATO. But Putin has been seriously weakened by what has happened.
4) What does this mean for the war in Ukraine?
Ukraine has a major opportunity here.
Russia’s defensive position in southeastern and southern Ukraine has been jeopardized by Wagner’s essential dislocation from the war effort. If Russian military units are forced to redeploy off the front line, Ukraine will have an opportunity to exploit breaches in Russian lines and create momentum for their offensive. At the same time, Putin has an interest in distracting attention from his own domestic weakness. A provocation involving nuclear power or weapons in Ukraine is more likely.
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5) What would Prigozhin in power mean?
It would deeply concern the U.S. and NATO. He is highly unpredictable and, as noted, likely also a psychopath.