Cuba paints a bullseye on itself with China military bases
Tom Rogan
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If the United States goes to war with China over Taiwan, a likelier than not possibility, Chinese People’s Liberation Army facilities across the globe will be legitimate targets for the U.S. military.
This is a reality that Cuba should consider closely.
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As the Wall Street Journal reports on Tuesday, China is in advanced negotiations with Cuba toward establishing a joint military facility on the Caribbean island nation’s northern coast. This base would be in addition to the electronic/signals intelligence facility China already operates in Cuba. The existence of that facility was reported by the Wall Street Journal earlier this month and denied, then later confirmed, by the White House.
To be clear, the new military base would not pose much direct threat as a training facility. In contrast to the PLA, the Cuban armed forces would be no match for the U.S. military in the event of war. And Cuba’s DI intelligence service is already highly capable, inculcated as it is by decades of training by more professional elements of the KGB.
That said, the training facility would pose a threat to the U.S. as a basing point for long-range Chinese missile, drone, radar, or command and control systems. In any war with China in the Pacific, the U.S. would want to prevent the PLA from targeting U.S. military communications or activity in and around Florida. This prospective military base would thus operate under legitimate threat of U.S. attack in any such scenario.
Cuba would, of course, decry such an attack as an assault on its sovereignty. But its means of retaliation would be limited. The catastrophic state of Cuba’s economy would also likely reduce its appetite for an exacerbated crisis with the U.S. Indeed, it’s worth asking why Havana is even contemplating this agreement in the first place.
I suspect it’s because China is now a critical economic partner for Havana. Cuban officials claimed that Beijing had pledged debt restructuring agreements, new infrastructure activity, and $100 million in aid following President Miguel Diaz-Canel’s state visit to Beijing last November. This support is indispensable. If the price for that aid is military cooperation, well, it seems that Havana is willing to roll the dice in risking a future showdown with the U.S.
From China’s perspective, this base would offer a number of opportunities, both military and political.
At the political level, bases in Cuba allow China a physical means of responding to what Beijing regards as outrageous U.S. interference near its mainland territory. U.S. engagement with Taiwan stands out here. By establishing a military footprint in Cuba, China hopes to play the U.S. at its own game. And with Cuba only 97 miles south of Key West and 150 miles south of mainland Florida, military bases on the island also offer another opportunity. Namely, for wide-ranging espionage. It’s not just the prospect of spying on U.S. communications that is relevant here. The PLA retains a drone and balloon surveillance capability that is far bolder and more technically advanced than commonly understood. With a base on the northern Cuban coast, the PLA would have far strengthened means of launching and sustaining surveillance flights over the continental U.S.
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Cuba should proceed carefully, however. If this base agreement goes ahead, and war between the U.S. and China breaks out, Havana will have painted a bullseye on itself.