To win, DeSantis must poach Trump’s voters. Here’s how he can do it
James Johnson
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Just weeks into my move from sleepy England to the United States came a bit of a surprise. On TV, in front of a cheering crowd, was former President Donald Trump waving my company’s just-released poll of New Hampshire.
“We’re 33 points up!” he exclaimed to applause. “I just saw that!” The survey, run by J.L. Partners, showed the former president at 51%. In a distant second place stood Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL) at 18%.
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That is the context in which the Florida governor entered the race on Wednesday. Our other polls are not much happier reading: Trump leads by 15 points in Iowa and 23 points in Arizona. But look under the bonnet of those top-line voting figures and the former president’s victory lap may yet be checked.
First, when the contest is narrowed to a two-horse race, DeSantis’s fortunes dramatically improve. In Iowa, Trump’s lead in a head-to-head is almost halved to 8 points. DeSantis similarly closes the gap in New Hampshire and Arizona, cutting Trump’s lead by 12 and 6 points, respectively.
As columnist Henry Olsen has pointed out, in no state does Trump substantially improve his share of the vote when the choice is narrowed down to two. He has maxed out his support within the GOP base. Now, DeSantis must close the gap.
Common wisdom in elections is to start with the undecided. But the 10% of undecided voters in this primary contest are not your typical swing voters waiting to make up their minds. They are the Republican old guard. They prioritize competence in a candidate most and don’t care for the war on “woke.”
As of now, they are horrified by any of the choices on offer. The few candidates they are most likely to feel positive about are Gov. Chris Sununu (R-NH) and Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (I-AZ) — both unlikely front-runners for the nomination.
They are the stubborn moderates, happier in 2012 than in 2024. Perhaps for some of them, DeSantis shares too many similarities with the man he wants to beat. As such, they do not present a viable path to the nomination. Even if DeSantis did successfully win the backing of undecided voters, it would not be enough to hand him a win in either New Hampshire or Arizona.
DeSantis has no choice but to make a bold and direct bid for Trump’s voters. This sounds like a difficult challenge, assuming the former president’s much-mentioned army of loyalists. But the data suggest that assertion may be a mirage.
In fact, fully half of Trump’s voters list DeSantis as their second choice. Ask Trump primary voters in New Hampshire what they think of the Florida governor, and the top words they use are not “DeSanctimonius,” “awkward,” or “moderate.” Instead, they use the words “strong,” “competent,” “leader,” and “smart.”
In the Granite State, DeSantis is also seen as the best placed on the three most important matters to primary voters. On “is competent,” “will stand up to woke values,” and “can beat Joe Biden at the election,” DeSantis leads Trump despite the former president having a 33-point lead in the poll. I didn’t hear that one mentioned at Trump’s rally.
Look at the Trump voters who list DeSantis as their second choice, and the picture is similar, with DeSantis leading Trump on “will stand up to woke values,” the most important matter to them by far.
Many perils await DeSantis. The very presence of other candidates, whether no-hopers on the moderate wing or people who temporarily surge, may yet mean Trump slips through. DeSantis’s botched launch was not terminal; voters will hold their judgment for substance more than the Beltway press circus will. But at times it felt more like an earnings call than the sharp populism DeSantis needs to embody. It is not clear that the governor is quite at ease with that role.
But there is no doubt that a path exists. To become the nominee, DeSantis must win the former president’s voters. With a consistent and laserlike focus on those three points — “woke” values, competence, and beating President Joe Biden — he has a chance to do so.
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If DeSantis makes these arguments — becoming the “woke”-basher, the workhorse, and the winner — the results of our next primary polls may not make it into Trump’s stage material.
James Johnson is co-founder of J.L. Partners, a research and polling firm based in Washington, D.C. He formerly ran polling at 10 Downing Street for the British prime minister.