In our recent column on the feverish 2028 maneuvering already underway behind the scenes, we name-checked three potential GOP hopefuls. Vice President JD Vance has long been considered the favorite in a hypothetical primary field. We also mentioned Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL).
Public opinion will ebb and flow in the months ahead, and any number of candidates could take the plunge. Any pundit who claims to know what will happen this early is blowing smoke. Still, we mentioned those three for good reason. A new AtlasIntel poll puts them atop the Republican field.
Atlas has distinguished itself over the past two national elections. In 2024, the firm correctly predicted President Donald Trump’s sweep of the swing states, often with impressive accuracy on the margins, as well as his narrow popular vote victory.
Late in this year’s midterm cycle, Atlas released a jaw-dropping D+15 poll of the generic congressional ballot. Many conservatives who had previously hailed the firm’s polling scoffed. What happened to Atlas? Some asked. Days later, voters vindicated the poll’s warning.
Ignore Atlas at your peril. With the freely admitted caveat that it’s ludicrously early, consider this a baseline for 2028.
Atlas Intel poll | 10/28-11/1
2028 Presidential Primaries
Republican presidential primary
Marco Rubio: 45.6%
Democratic presidential primary
Jon… pic.twitter.com/W2c3VEAvIS
— OSZ (@OpenSourceZone) November 6, 2026
Rubio’s jump into first place with a double-digit lead is fascinating. He’s gaining ground even as he steers clear of talk about running. Vance has been less coy. Just before the midterm elections, he entertained a question about whether Trump would endorse him.
Rubio’s momentum appears to have built on its own, which may explain why he was so quick to shoot down reports that he was preparing to leave the administration and launch a campaign. He already holds an influential position and is gaining ground politically. Why shake that up now? The emphatic denial was a slam dunk.
And looming over all of this is Trump, who bristles at the idea that he’s a lame duck and is very much keeping score.
On the Democratic side, the race looks wide open. Four candidates are in double digits in the Atlas poll, spanning the ideological range from Sen. Jon Ossoff (D-GA) to Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY). Kamala Harris, who has led most other polls, is in the mix but hardly dominant. For what it’s worth, we’d bet she eventually passes on the race.
2028 JOCKEYING ALREADY UNDERWAY
Gov. Gavin Newsom (D-CA) is languishing in the single digits, which may help explain his attention-grabbing moves to impress the left-wing base and regain some of the momentum he seemed to have earlier in Trump’s second term.
As we noted in our earlier column, the Democratic field is likely to balloon next year, perhaps to dozens of candidates.