As stun grenades exploded and police turned a water cannon on demonstrators in Rome over the weekend, the crowd fled into side streets. Moments earlier, protesters had been chanting anti-government slogans beneath Palestinian flags and red banners bearing the hammer and sickle. The clashes followed unrest elsewhere in Italy, including looting in Milan and confrontations in Turin. Shopkeepers boarded up their windows, while the government reinforced security and deployed soldiers. The public anger has a number of causes, including fears over living costs and opposition to defense spending.
In Milan, authorities detained Youssef Siher, a 30-year-old Italian freelance journalist of Moroccan descent, accusing him of inciting violence through the online October 17 Movement. Whether those accusations establish responsibility remains to be determined. But Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni’s party has used the case to accuse the broader left of tolerating radicals and encouraging a climate in which protest precipitates violence. The unrest has allowed Meloni to present herself as the defender of public order, while forcing her opponents to clarify where their stated solidarity with the protesters ends.
The student marches began mid-October under the slogan “No Meloni Day.” Among the protesters I spoke to in Rome, opposition to war and rearmament mingled with anxiety about making ends meet. After decades beneath the American security umbrella, many Italians came to enjoy the luxury of regarding war as somebody else’s concern. That bargain made possible generous welfare commitments. Even with war raging in Ukraine and Russia conducting terrorist attacks across Europe, many Italians still feel the threat is distant.
“I’m here because I’m anti-war,” said one protester. “The government puts a lot of money in armament and in war, but we are dying poor and nobody is doing anything.”
These claims deserve closer scrutiny.
In Italy, pensions, healthcare, and social protection absorb about 56% of all public spending, roughly 28% of GDP. It’s the third-highest allocation of any European Union nation. Pensions dominate the bill at about 16% of GDP, the second-highest share in the EU after Greece. In contrast, defense spending sits at roughly 2% of GDP, but far lower than the U.S. and other NATO allies would like to see. Moreover, Italy has only reached this level by counting security spending as part of its armed forces total.
But the basic problem is the same as that afflicting France. Namely, that with debt approaching 140% of GDP, Italy needs to cut spending, or cut spending and raise taxes. Demographics also matter here.
Young Italians have good reason to feel disadvantaged by a system that devotes far more to pensions than to education, which receives roughly 4% of GDP. These outlays will only increase as Italy’s population continues to age rapidly. Rising rents and everyday expenses make life harder, even for those with jobs. But another state subsidy won’t solve the issue. The real answer is to leave more money in people’s pockets by cutting spending and taxes, and by removing heavy barriers to building homes and creating jobs.
Italy knows where irresponsible fiscal management leads.
During the eurozone debt crisis of 2011 to 2012, soaring borrowing costs were forced through tax increases and painful reforms. The austerity that followed should serve as a warning about the eventual price of unaffordable promises. Unlike her predecessors, Meloni has done a good job cutting back some of that expenditure and steering the budget toward balance, and ratings agencies have taken note. But rising fuel prices and protests by truck drivers, shop owners, and fishermen in the south are testing that discipline, bringing pressure from small-business owners her coalition counts among its voters.
HERE ARE THE STATES WITH VOTER ID ON THE BALLOT THIS NOVEMBER
Whether discontent ultimately costs Meloni power remains uncertain. On the Left, Elly Schlein’s Democratic Party and Giuseppe Conte’s Five-Star Movement struggle to form a coherent alternative. On Meloni’s far-right, former general Roberto Vannacci’s radical Futuro Nazionale competes for conservative voters. There is plenty of competition to channel Italy’s unhappiness.
Whether anyone can persuade voters to confront its causes is another question.