President Donald Trump blames Ukraine for continuing its defensive war against Russia. He does so even as Ukraine has agreed to ceasefires proposed by Trump but rejected or broken systematically by Russia. Trump pretends that Ukrainian attacks on Russia’s energy network are intended to increase American gas prices rather than, as they are, to drain Russia’s war machine of funds. He has adopted these pro-Russian positions even as his own Justice Department charges Russian spies with assassination plots against the United States.
We are about to find out just how far Trump is willing to go in blaming the victim rather than the aggressor.
President Volodymyr Zelensky noted that talks this week with Trump’s peace envoy, Steve Witkoff, made progress on securing “strong” security guarantees for Ukraine as part of any deal to end the war. This suggests that Witkoff has either won Putin’s acceptance of Ukraine’s need for credible security guarantees or that Trump has accepted the need for these guarantees regardless of Putin’s opinion. Either way, the statements are a big deal.
When Zelensky refers to “strong” security guarantees, he is describing a tripwire European military force that would fight alongside Ukrainian forces in the event of another Russian invasion one, five, or 15 years from now. The United Kingdom and France have pledged to provide the foundation for this force in order to deter Russia from using a peace deal to buy time to prepare a future attack. To prevent a future war, Putin must know that launching another invasion would mean war with European militaries supported by the U.S. Air Force.
Witkoff’s obsequious description of Putin as “a humanitarian” at their meeting on Wednesday suggests that the former KGB officer-turned-president has manipulated this real estate businessman just as he has the one sitting in the Oval Office. But Zelensky’s reference to “strong” security guarantees, we hope, suggests something better. Unlike his talks with Zelensky, Witkoff’s visit with Putin produced no references to specific progress. That’s a sign that the Russians remain convinced they can play for time and avoid serious concessions.
The Kremlin has always made it clear that it would reject any security guarantees as described by Zelensky. Russia explicitly rules out a tripwire European force on Ukrainian soil or a treaty guarantee by Western nations to intervene in Ukraine’s defense. Moscow has also insisted that Ukraine would not be allowed to maintain a large standing army. All of this raises a question: If Zelensky believes progress has been made on security guarantees, what happens when Putin again rejects them?
Putin is almost certain to remain intransigent. His opposition is rooted in his belief, which he outlined in an essay six months before the war, that Ukraine should exist only within a Russian empire. He knows that if Zelensky gets strong security guarantees, Russia would find itself thwarted if it invaded again.
What will Trump do when Putin says no to a Witkoff-Zelensky compromise?
Will he alter Putin’s perspective by imposing crippling sanctions on Russia’s foreign trade partners, a possibility made easy by congressional passage and Trump’s signature on a sanctions law authored by the late Sen. Lindsey Graham? Putin hates Ukrainian security guarantees, but he would hate U.S. sanctions pressure more. He is paranoid about ensuring domestic stability.
A RED-GREEN WARNING FROM FRANCE
Alternatively, will Trump reinforce Putin’s understanding that he, and not the American president, is boss? That would certainly be the case if Trump is moved by Putin’s protests to demand that Zelensky accept only worthless rhetorical security guarantees.
We’ll soon learn whether Trump’s deference to Putin is rooted in general delusion or pathological submissiveness.