Resuming strikes on Russia’s energy network, President Volodymyr Zelensky risks President Donald Trump’s fury and an end to U.S. intelligence and arms support for Ukraine.
Still, Zelensky made this decision for two good reasons.
First, Russian President Vladimir Putin has proven his complete disdain for Trump’s announcement last Sunday that Russia and Ukraine had agreed to suspend energy infrastructure attacks. Although apparently unnoticed by Trump, Putin instead escalated his attacks on Ukraine’s energy network even as Zelensky paused reciprocal attacks. Zelensky’s reward for his one-sided deference was Trump’s absurd suggestion that he, and not Putin, is the obstacle to ending the war peacefully.
Second, attacks on energy infrastructure remain the central pivot upon which Ukraine can turn up the costs of war for the Kremlin. While Moscow retains major advantages in the scale of its combat forces, Kyiv has increasingly proven Russia vulnerable to what are known as “deep strike operations.” Originally guided by U.K. military advice, these operations are designed to inject friction into Russia’s means of — and will to — wage war.
Targeting the Russian energy industry, Ukraine has frayed Russia’s primary means of generating foreign capital via oil and gas sales. Targeting data centers and depots belonging to Russia’s equivalent of Amazon, Ukraine has pressured the margins of the Russian economy and society.
The strategic objective of these operations is to complicate Russia’s means of waging war, to underline Ukraine’s continued resolve to both Russia and Kyiv’s supporters in the West, and to remind the Russian people that, nearly five years after Putin launched what was supposed to be a short and simple “special military operation,” the war is very far from won.
Ukraine knows — and Putin fears — that more and more Russians are slowly asking whether this war can be won. Yes, most Russians continue to support Putin and the war. But as the casualties grow (500,000 Russian soldiers are credibly estimated to have died so far) and as Ukraine continues to hold ground, the costs of Putin’s folly will become harder to ignore.
Zelensky has also likely assessed that Trump will struggle to simply cut off intelligence and arms support for Ukraine.
The vast majority of U.S. allies globally continue to view Ukraine’s defense as a prerequisite for global stability and, in Europe’s case, for their own security. So do a clear bipartisan majority in Congress, the U.S. military, the U.S. intelligence community, and the State Department. Trump would face a major political fight were he to truly turn the screws on Ukraine. Considering that Democrats are likely to secure control of Congress come November’s midterm congressional elections, Trump might well wage this fight from a position of weakness.
The U.S. also now sells arms directly to European governments for them to then provide to Ukraine, so suspending this support would not save American taxpayers money but would hurt American defense firms.
Trump’s additional problem is that Russia would take every advantage of any suspension of support for Ukraine.
RUSSIAN ASSASSINATIONS ON WESTERN SOIL DEMAND VIOLENT RETALIATION
So, while Trump could cut intelligence support that gives Ukraine warning of Russian attacks, he would appear utterly immoral and submissive to Putin in doing so. After all, Trump would be facilitating a Russian effort to turn the Ukrainian winter into a hellscape of fire and freezing conditions for innocent civilians. Trump would be making a dangerous gamble if he assumed Americans concerned about gas prices would also look kindly on a president who withholds intelligence that saves lives.
Regardless, Ukraine knows it could maintain a reduced but capable defensive posture even in the event that Trump cut all U.S. support. And no wartime leader could survive long while restraining his people from defending their nation’s freedom against an enemy determined to vanquish it.