In a video posted on Oct. 3, President Donald Trump unveiled his October surprise, doubling down on his pledge at last month’s GOP midterm convention to give every American adult $5,000 if Republicans retain control of both chambers of Congress in November’s midterm elections.
Trump dubbed these payments the “Trump dividend,” channeling the same business acumen that brought us Trump University, Trump Steaks, Trump Mortgages, Trump Shuttle, and Trump Coin.
Trump’s video statement hit the Twitterverse at 9:44 a.m. A collective groan from economists and constitutional scholars registered on the Richter scale at 9:45 a.m.
Why do economists and constitutional scholars loathe the president’s promise of “free” money? Well, a few reasons.
Legally, it’s absurd. Electorally, Trump dividends are, at best, fanciful. Even if Republicans miraculously retained both houses, securing enough votes to pass a $1.25 trillion kickback would be a heavy lift for a party that can’t even pass a simple farm bill. At worst, they’re unconstitutional. Article I grants Congress the power to tax and spend — not the president. Trump may find such checks and balances passé, but the Supreme Court won’t.
Ethically, it’s immoral. Leave aside the brazenness of offering voters a thinly veiled bribe weeks before an election. It is fundamentally unfair and undemocratic to saddle unborn generations who are already facing a $40 trillion tab with a $1.25 trillion bill for buying off today’s electorate. The richest generation in history should leave its progeny an inheritance, not a mountain of debt.
Fiscally, it’s psychotic — and possibly suicidal. The Center for a Responsible Federal Budget pegs the price tag at $1.25 trillion. Tack that onto our $40 trillion federal debt, and you’ve got a recipe for surging prices, spiraling interest rates, and a fast-tracked fiscal crisis.
Trump claims he’ll pay this dividend out of our “massive” tariff revenues and a “record-setting $21 trillion that is being invested in our country.” Sadly for the public, Trump’s numbers are about as real as “John Barron’s” romantic exploits or the points in Whose Line Is It Anyway? Tariffs reeled in less than $200 billion in revenue last fiscal year, a far cry from the $600 to $700 billion we were promised after “Liberation Day.” Contrary to Trump’s $21 trillion investment figure (which might as well have been conjured out of thin air), net foreign investment fell by one-third in Q1 of 2025, and new FDI project announcements continued to decline in 2026. Turns out, ostracizing and insulting your chief trading partners is bad for business. Who knew?
All that being said, Trump doesn’t care how his dividends stack up legally, ethically, or fiscally. All that matters is how it performs by the lowest possible standard: politically.
Measured on that margin, Trump dividends are a stroke of strategic brilliance — the proverbial idea that is so incandescently dumb it might just work. If nothing else, they’re a useful distraction from all the self-inflicted disasters plaguing Trump’s second term. Americans are increasingly wary of endless wars, spiraling gas prices, and rising cost of living. Trump and the GOP likely need their own Project Hail Mary to rescue them from nosediving polls and a messy electoral reckoning. And nothing polls better than the promise of “free” money.
That’s why Democrats must top Trump’s offer before voters head to the polls in November.
So hear me out, Democrats: $6,000 dividend checks.
Think about it. An American walks into a voting booth and sees two bags of money: $5,000 sittin’ next to “R”, and $6,000 right beside it next to “D.” Which one are they gonna pick?
Where would Democrats get the money to pay this heightened bribe? Presumably from the same orifice Trump pulled his proposal out of. Let’s be real: Democrats don’t exactly need their arms twisted to engage in reckless spending. Fiscal profligacy has long been one of their favorite vices. Regardless, it’s best not to overthink it. In a battle of braindead policies, the losing side is the one who thinks first.
I know what you’re thinking: What if Republicans counter with $7,000?
TRUMP THINKS GEORGIA IS FIGHTING SOROS. THEY’RE JUST PLAYING HIM
But c’mon. Don’t be silly. That’s absurd. Six is the key number here. Think about it. Six infinity stones. Six ninja turtles. The Sixth Sense. Six little chipmunks twirlin’ on a branch, eatin’ lots of sunflowers on my uncle’s ranch. Six — that’s the number. Not seven.
If all this sounds insane, welcome to the wild-and-wacky world of modern U.S. politics. Trump isn’t afraid to play Russian roulette with our fiscal future. Unfortunately for him, two can play that game. When you’re living in idiocracy, the best bet is always to double down on stupid.
Scott A. Burns is the Charles Blackwell Associate Professor of Economics at Southeastern Louisiana University in Hammond, LA. He is the coauthor with Caleb S. Fuller of the forthcoming book from the Independent Institute: Trade Wars: Why Freedom Trumps Tariffs.